{ "ticker": { "uuid": "492af288-4772-4bc8-92ff-a921e0486b37", "symbol": "1441", "name": "Tah Tong Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.406, "architecture_energy": 70.305, "architecture_maturity": 28.704, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.11, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 37.22, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 92.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.968, 9.088364, 9.303762, 9.492 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 8.9, "trend_reference": 9.714, "distance_from_trend": -0.083797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.635606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.38742, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106426, "excess_performance": -0.547798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.295641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027009, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.393874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031384, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43209, "relative_activity": 0.126807, "balance": 0.441979, "dry_up": 0.208665, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045722, "annualized_volatility": 0.501245, "from_high_reference": -0.373239, "from_low_reference": 0.010216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.714, "fair_value_reference": 12.635606, "structural_low": 8.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.01339, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.021977, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.04, "worst_return": -0.079463, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.038793, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.112671, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.026316, "worst_return": -0.14539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107759, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.168186, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.02033, "worst_return": -0.177305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007407, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006897, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.296633, "energy": 34.524498, "activity_lines": [ 9.219333, 9.255273, 9.507524, 9.660796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.92, "volume": 68484, "typical_volume": 346741.5, "trend": 9.810667, "fair_value": 12.707042, "relative_strength": -37.607189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.017504, "energy": 66.72507, "activity_lines": [ 9.108667, 9.189091, 9.433, 9.599935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 70936, "typical_volume": 342004.05, "trend": 9.762333, "fair_value": 12.671414, "relative_strength": -37.59798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.400343, "energy": 67.544695, "activity_lines": [ 9.032, 9.145091, 9.370952, 9.547634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 8.9, "volume": 43209, "typical_volume": 340746.3, "trend": 9.714, "fair_value": 12.635606, "relative_strength": -39.38742, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.406412, "energy": 70.305177, "activity_lines": [ 8.968, 9.088364, 9.303762, 9.492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }