{ "ticker": { "uuid": "493394d8-cdf9-4d9c-b0b4-3cf80c46889f", "symbol": "KAKEL", "name": "Kakel Max AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.353, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.904, "architecture_energy": 10.583, "architecture_maturity": 10.613, "architecture_confidence": 57.61, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.3, "rotation_up": 27.6, "upward_expansion": 41.5, "deceleration": 73.62, "rotation_down": 27.21, "downward_expansion": 30.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.88, 10.92, 10.965238, 10.925484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.1, "trend_reference": 10.81, "distance_from_trend": 0.026827, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.489744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058176, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.911543, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.067308, "excess_performance": 0.005813, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026827, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064488, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051125, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.067308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.337644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9099, "relative_activity": 0.503962, "balance": 0.337644, "dry_up": 0.252092, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06237, "annualized_volatility": 0.319986, "from_high_reference": -0.177778, "from_low_reference": 0.337349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.81, "fair_value_reference": 10.489744, "structural_low": 8.9, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.005208, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.011998, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.098901, "worst_return": -0.087379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.015024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036993, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.19598, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031746, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.039009, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.221622, "worst_return": -0.217822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085427, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.068216, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.026316, "worst_return": -0.189744, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2022-12-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010204, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.462162, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095477, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080189, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055276, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075676, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128713, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04717, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.700001, "volume": 2650, "typical_volume": 828.5, "trend": 18.446667, "fair_value": 19.89359, "relative_strength": -12.231107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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10.889677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.8, "volume": 4590, "typical_volume": 18415.2, "trend": 10.72, "fair_value": 10.571154, "relative_strength": -2.504478, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.368034, "energy": 11.044482, "activity_lines": [ 10.806667, 10.918182, 10.948571, 10.89871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.8, "volume": 2186, "typical_volume": 18065.85, "trend": 10.765, "fair_value": 10.529487, "relative_strength": -3.751151, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.498682, "energy": 10.777359, "activity_lines": [ 10.78, 10.887273, 10.942381, 10.903871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.1, "volume": 9099, "typical_volume": 18054.95, "trend": 10.81, "fair_value": 10.489744, "relative_strength": -2.911543, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.904175, "energy": 10.583021, "activity_lines": [ 10.88, 10.92, 10.965238, 10.925484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }