{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4935a2a1-d9d1-4734-ac22-157c00b53865", "symbol": "PCT", "name": "Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.208, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.7, "architecture_energy": 15.173, "architecture_maturity": 4.959, "architecture_confidence": 45.952, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.06, "rotation_up": 48.72, "upward_expansion": 37.19, "deceleration": 29.05, "rotation_down": 20.29, "downward_expansion": 18.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.058333, 1.055, 1.044513, 1.045634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.045, "trend_reference": 1.057683, "distance_from_trend": -0.011991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.090043, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041322, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.43191, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069663, "excess_performance": -0.097937, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041322, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069663, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819727, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5712969, "relative_activity": 1.028243, "balance": 0.819727, "dry_up": 1.143726, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036865, "annualized_volatility": 0.164715, "from_high_reference": -0.198481, "from_low_reference": 0.062406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.057683, "fair_value_reference": 1.090043, "structural_low": 0.983616, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004545, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.010025, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.10288, "worst_return": -0.036145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015692, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076465, "worst_return": -0.099345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.027227, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.039501, "worst_return": -0.14316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.055, "volume": 4865192, "typical_volume": 6069384.45, "trend": 1.069984, "fair_value": 1.091115, "relative_strength": -9.450811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.334371, "energy": 11.467815, "activity_lines": [ 1.048667, 1.040805, 1.035236, 1.046929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.055, "volume": 7142226, "typical_volume": 6066965.15, "trend": 1.067548, "fair_value": 1.090861, "relative_strength": -8.578963, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.862347, "energy": 11.039864, "activity_lines": [ 1.051667, 1.044511, 1.036899, 1.045963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.095, "volume": 7923260, "typical_volume": 6240133.35, "trend": 1.065638, "fair_value": 1.090728, "relative_strength": -5.392516, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.6445, "energy": 39.465637, "activity_lines": [ 1.066667, 1.054818, 1.042397, 1.047734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.05, "volume": 4639929, "typical_volume": 5638002.6, "trend": 1.061905, "fair_value": 1.090334, "relative_strength": -8.478896, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.399508, "energy": 27.699364, "activity_lines": [ 1.063667, 1.055455, 1.04357, 1.046725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.045, "volume": 5712969, "typical_volume": 5556047.65, "trend": 1.057683, "fair_value": 1.090043, "relative_strength": -9.43191, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.700022, "energy": 15.173464, "activity_lines": [ 1.058333, 1.055, 1.044513, 1.045634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }