{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49369f1a-c114-45aa-a1fe-4a95b9df8e8a", "symbol": "OMU", "name": "Old Mutual Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.823, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.523, "architecture_energy": 20.087, "architecture_maturity": 12.813, "architecture_confidence": 61.0, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.43, "rotation_up": 14.72, "upward_expansion": 7.47, "deceleration": 55.36, "rotation_down": 40.72, "downward_expansion": 61.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.5988, 0.603673, 0.603069, 0.610063 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.606, "trend_reference": 0.625107, "distance_from_trend": -0.030566, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.495003, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224235, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.001162, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122871, "excess_performance": -0.174106, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030566, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.7e-05, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224235, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070012, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122871, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.890999, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 501732, "relative_activity": 0.439058, "balance": 0.890999, "dry_up": 1.392237, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069067, "annualized_volatility": 0.331722, "from_high_reference": -0.200788, "from_low_reference": 0.274708 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.625107, "fair_value_reference": 0.495003, "structural_low": 0.558101, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.00702, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.006927, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.132194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.040755, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.03031, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.235312, "worst_return": -0.097466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.079964, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00475, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163229, "worst_return": -0.132247, "sufficient": 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0.615067, 0.607491, 0.606888, 0.618416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.608, "volume": 638385, "typical_volume": 1040505.85, "trend": 0.630693, "fair_value": 0.492162, "relative_strength": -3.906338, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.071556, "energy": 8.633508, "activity_lines": [ 0.612133, 0.608691, 0.606346, 0.616918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.57, "volume": 1863081, "typical_volume": 1076056.0, "trend": 0.628716, "fair_value": 0.492917, "relative_strength": -11.032312, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.850188, "energy": 25.257079, "activity_lines": [ 0.597067, 0.602836, 0.602809, 0.613002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.604, "volume": 3360697, "typical_volume": 1222176.4, "trend": 0.626846, "fair_value": 0.493925, "relative_strength": -6.951773, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.331883, "energy": 21.323355, "activity_lines": [ 0.597467, 0.6032, 0.602802, 0.611408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.606, "volume": 501732, "typical_volume": 1142746.05, "trend": 0.625107, "fair_value": 0.495003, "relative_strength": -7.001162, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.523057, "energy": 20.08657, "activity_lines": [ 0.5988, 0.603673, 0.603069, 0.610063 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }