{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4937162d-0e10-4d3d-929f-ac79b5ef6cce", "symbol": "002105", "name": "HL Corp (Shenzhen)", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.516, "architecture_energy": 40.276, "architecture_maturity": 91.265, "architecture_confidence": 61.895, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.94, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 17.57, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 42.99, "downward_expansion": 67.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.222667, 5.196545, 5.541476, 5.858968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.49, "trend_reference": 6.296667, "distance_from_trend": -0.12811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.095642, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099357, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.254547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.211207, "excess_performance": -0.218607, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099357, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211207, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578679, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39632958, "relative_activity": 1.241112, "balance": 0.578679, "dry_up": 1.409454, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093036, "annualized_volatility": 0.372226, "from_high_reference": -0.46699, "from_low_reference": 0.19869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.296667, "fair_value_reference": 6.095642, "structural_low": 4.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013114, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.001384, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.188442, "worst_return": -0.137371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037188, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037889, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.28536, "worst_return": -0.210031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.101446, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087404, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.295285, "worst_return": -0.157738, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 5.04, "volume": 38048271, "typical_volume": 31261419.85, "trend": 6.616333, "fair_value": 6.118689, "relative_strength": -34.581383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.132544, "energy": 88.82117, "activity_lines": [ 5.132, 5.438182, 5.868333, 6.194409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.18, "volume": 49190711, "typical_volume": 31674157.2, "trend": 6.532333, "fair_value": 6.114025, "relative_strength": -25.245148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.629458, "energy": 72.701529, "activity_lines": [ 5.126, 5.333273, 5.768333, 6.101742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.79, "volume": 48786457, "typical_volume": 31843492.35, "trend": 6.433, "fair_value": 6.106161, "relative_strength": -30.274386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.415384, "energy": 64.556624, "activity_lines": [ 5.014, 5.186364, 5.643286, 5.989333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.28, "volume": 42424716, "typical_volume": 31842641.1, "trend": 6.357667, "fair_value": 6.100228, "relative_strength": -21.108328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.772568, "energy": 54.526963, "activity_lines": [ 5.092667, 5.161636, 5.578048, 5.914946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.49, "volume": 39632958, "typical_volume": 31933435.95, "trend": 6.296667, "fair_value": 6.095642, "relative_strength": -21.254547, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.515986, "energy": 40.275899, "activity_lines": [ 5.222667, 5.196545, 5.541476, 5.858968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }