{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49434cb0-e954-4a67-8a20-5853c827e3ad", "symbol": "SDOW", "name": "PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT DOW30", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.596, "architecture_energy": 63.556, "architecture_maturity": 60.783, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 10.47, "deceleration": 53.24, "rotation_down": 57.49, "downward_expansion": 83.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.558667, 23.984736, 25.384576, 27.001516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.0, "trend_reference": 28.53333, "distance_from_trend": -0.228972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.82295, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.549392, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.00822, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215957, "excess_performance": -0.341582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081184, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.549392, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.370082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080579, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28676147, "relative_activity": 1.166036, "balance": 0.512247, "dry_up": 0.810634, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081529, "annualized_volatility": 0.351625, "from_high_reference": -0.463401, "from_low_reference": 0.04142 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.53333, "fair_value_reference": 48.82295, "structural_low": 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82.079045, "activity_lines": [ 24.197224, 24.839401, 26.787787, 28.041082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.84, "volume": 14475751, "typical_volume": 26135240.95, "trend": 29.008039, "fair_value": 49.524497, "relative_strength": -27.767898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.127464, "energy": 73.644742, "activity_lines": [ 24.357333, 24.714628, 26.393672, 27.760062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.02, "volume": 20362822, "typical_volume": 24874236.05, "trend": 28.769421, "fair_value": 49.175671, "relative_strength": -29.867322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.242391, "energy": 57.511641, "activity_lines": [ 24.265333, 24.50801, 25.959638, 27.438253 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.0, "volume": 28676147, "typical_volume": 24592851.9, "trend": 28.53333, "fair_value": 48.82295, "relative_strength": -37.00822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.596024, "energy": 63.55629, "activity_lines": [ 23.558667, 23.984736, 25.384576, 27.001516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }