{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49449c6f-4e13-48a0-a992-7f8796943259", "symbol": "NYT", "name": "New York Times Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 83.833, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.552, "architecture_energy": 55.2, "architecture_maturity": 18.906, "architecture_confidence": 89.843, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.78, "rotation_up": 15.81, "upward_expansion": 9.3, "deceleration": 42.22, "rotation_down": 56.95, "downward_expansion": 77.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.602, 71.927936, 73.803903, 75.132817 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 63.54, "trend_reference": 75.762056, "distance_from_trend": -0.161322, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.722348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140297, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.725981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064585, "excess_performance": -0.190209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161322, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028394, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140297, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.364691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18726, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064585, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21596501, "relative_activity": 2.250238, "balance": 0.78653, "dry_up": 1.17133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082809, "annualized_volatility": 0.352054, "from_high_reference": -0.270494, "from_low_reference": 0.18071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.762056, "fair_value_reference": 55.722348, "structural_low": 63.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077368, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.047338, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.091952, "worst_return": -0.152668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.076705, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.097383, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00284, "worst_return": -0.368511, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.182844, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.098343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036987, "worst_return": -0.402676, 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.392693, "energy": 27.042157, "activity_lines": [ 73.337329, 73.880594, 75.971526, 76.240254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 75.93, "volume": 7496696, "typical_volume": 9565887.05, "trend": 75.763451, "fair_value": 55.151837, "relative_strength": 1.459374, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.305975, "energy": 13.938445, "activity_lines": [ 74.299496, 74.12393, 75.812845, 76.262854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.65, "volume": 7517781, "typical_volume": 9212294.05, "trend": 75.825435, "fair_value": 55.361116, "relative_strength": -3.954658, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.352387, "energy": 17.938445, "activity_lines": [ 73.649665, 73.652356, 75.263904, 75.99747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.89, "volume": 8356074, "typical_volume": 9140717.7, "trend": 76.006692, "fair_value": 55.590729, "relative_strength": -1.000564, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.261914, "energy": 16.588806, "activity_lines": [ 74.158571, 73.821328, 75.064363, 75.93712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.54, "volume": 21596501, "typical_volume": 9597430.5, "trend": 75.762056, "fair_value": 55.722348, "relative_strength": -18.725981, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.55241, "energy": 55.199785, "activity_lines": [ 70.602, 71.927936, 73.803903, 75.132817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }