{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49458b3d-569b-4e19-a12b-fa761b7e622b", "symbol": "EX28", "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Banks UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.663, "architecture_energy": 73.512, "architecture_maturity": 44.642, "architecture_confidence": 74.549, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 68.97, "upward_expansion": 88.46, "deceleration": 52.61, "rotation_down": 22.52, "downward_expansion": 12.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.799668, 41.214546, 39.624262, 38.372345 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 42.775002, "trend_reference": 37.126667, "distance_from_trend": 0.152137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.359237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.686762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.711805, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.167121, "excess_performance": -0.007125, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.152137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067477, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.686762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137762, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007118, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.167121, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.542854, "dry_up": 1.274393, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028647, "annualized_volatility": 0.256146, "from_high_reference": -0.008805, "from_low_reference": 0.465399 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.126667, "fair_value_reference": 25.359237, "structural_low": 31.02, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.026323, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.00039, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.155714, "worst_return": -0.216891, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.083356, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.034724, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.230532, "worst_return": -0.149021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.132297, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.063847, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.34087, "worst_return": -0.078087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1228.35, "trend": 36.476334, "fair_value": 24.858622, "relative_strength": -0.857382, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.767362, "energy": 86.710984, "activity_lines": [ 40.775, 39.889, 38.26031, 37.353495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1099.2, "trend": 36.680334, "fair_value": 25.019006, "relative_strength": -0.172285, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.669718, "energy": 86.390661, "activity_lines": [ 40.913667, 40.272909, 38.6745, 37.652441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.955002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 970.05, "trend": 36.891167, "fair_value": 25.186167, "relative_strength": 1.788495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.335377, "energy": 76.382314, "activity_lines": [ 41.283667, 40.712455, 39.132286, 37.992742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.775002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 883.95, "trend": 37.126667, "fair_value": 25.359237, "relative_strength": 0.711805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.663183, "energy": 73.511986, "activity_lines": [ 41.799668, 41.214546, 39.624262, 38.372345 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }