{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4946b0b5-ee0b-4280-98a6-9bbe86b3fbf7", "symbol": "AEO", "name": "American Eagle Outfitters Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.754, "architecture_energy": 7.611, "architecture_maturity": 18.143, "architecture_confidence": 61.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.06, "rotation_up": 24.03, "upward_expansion": 29.21, "deceleration": 47.34, "rotation_down": 27.64, "downward_expansion": 44.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.362667, 17.267846, 17.124449, 17.590487 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.97, "trend_reference": 18.86851, "distance_from_trend": -0.04762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.444261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.030138, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.301713, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.238526, "excess_performance": -0.364151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.030138, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023788, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.238526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.533136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19854600, "relative_activity": 0.822708, "balance": 1.533136, "dry_up": 0.875139, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102918, "annualized_volatility": 0.570223, "from_high_reference": -0.361316, "from_low_reference": 0.522268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.86851, "fair_value_reference": 17.444261, "structural_low": 14.5413, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063902, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.0898, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.512058, "worst_return": -0.187068, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.185483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.236752, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.386605, "worst_return": -0.220013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.309032, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.303503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.935631, "worst_return": -0.499489, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.402097, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.47886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.205981, "worst_return": -0.598212, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01012, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.398692, "active": false 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"Developing", "return": -0.275253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.212183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05416, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029976, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.641045, "volume": 17217551, "typical_volume": 21010530.0, "trend": 12.298171, "fair_value": 17.267321, "relative_strength": 12.990097, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", 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26669769, "typical_volume": 26727243.4, "trend": 19.755445, "fair_value": 17.375449, "relative_strength": -15.637159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.439823, "energy": 27.368858, "activity_lines": [ 16.972007, 17.034302, 17.045313, 17.991542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 18734194, "typical_volume": 25263048.45, "trend": 19.453448, "fair_value": 17.401859, "relative_strength": -15.572656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.574964, "energy": 25.350789, "activity_lines": [ 16.931669, 17.06712, 17.0305, 17.813771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.18, "volume": 19221180, "typical_volume": 24442937.8, "trend": 19.157452, "fair_value": 17.421976, "relative_strength": -15.952649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.859434, "energy": 20.03215, "activity_lines": [ 16.996567, 17.101574, 17.039187, 17.667097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.97, "volume": 19854600, "typical_volume": 24133222.15, "trend": 18.86851, "fair_value": 17.444261, "relative_strength": -15.301713, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.75353, "energy": 7.610733, "activity_lines": [ 17.362667, 17.267846, 17.124449, 17.590487 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }