{ "ticker": { "uuid": "494735b7-65b8-45c9-a839-59769591d4fb", "symbol": "BA", "name": "BAE Systems plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.555, "architecture_energy": 20.821, "architecture_maturity": 16.592, "architecture_confidence": 57.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.24, "rotation_up": 52.73, "upward_expansion": 36.78, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 20.88, "downward_expansion": 18.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2066.666667, 1991.118182, 1978.674761, 2011.239687 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2220.0, "trend_reference": 2037.886214, "distance_from_trend": 0.089364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1543.868974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.437946, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.135149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.181607, "excess_performance": 0.130372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.437946, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113054, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051351, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105915, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181607, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.93039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34807670, "relative_activity": 1.35766, "balance": 1.93039, "dry_up": 1.242779, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102376, "annualized_volatility": 0.410852, "from_high_reference": -0.059221, "from_low_reference": 0.419437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2037.886214, "fair_value_reference": 1543.868974, "structural_low": 1564.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007102, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.00372, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.270809, "worst_return": -0.074156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113775, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.068521, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.468115, "worst_return": -0.058493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.383979, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.318092, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.405184, "worst_return": -0.043339, "sufficient": true }, { 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"fair_value": 1529.190803, "relative_strength": -5.175702, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.870313, "energy": 17.813768, "activity_lines": [ 1913.266667, 1906.618182, 1951.541266, 1994.419344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2094.0, "volume": 36806013, "typical_volume": 26077269.85, "trend": 2032.312166, "fair_value": 1536.150066, "relative_strength": -0.405695, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.477637, "energy": 11.462316, "activity_lines": [ 1978.5, 1938.327273, 1958.601463, 1999.130794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2220.0, "volume": 34807670, "typical_volume": 25637985.75, "trend": 2037.886214, "fair_value": 1543.868974, "relative_strength": 5.135149, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.554866, "energy": 20.820743, "activity_lines": [ 2066.666667, 1991.118182, 1978.674761, 2011.239687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }