{ "ticker": { "uuid": "494995ea-5cef-4204-9303-b051b3418178", "symbol": "RAY", "name": "Raytech Holding Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.364, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.803, "architecture_energy": 24.452, "architecture_maturity": 38.668, "architecture_confidence": 92.952, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.98, "rotation_up": 20.13, "upward_expansion": 2.03, "deceleration": 51.13, "rotation_down": 42.85, "downward_expansion": 73.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.908667, 2.924716, 3.034154, 3.212189 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.93, "trend_reference": 3.471283, "distance_from_trend": -0.155932, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.571424, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.857569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.663754, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.327982, "excess_performance": -0.515435, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.155932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098004, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.857569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.556638, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.231122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327982, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51108, "relative_activity": 0.941919, "balance": 0.524552, "dry_up": 0.747649, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.278551, "annualized_volatility": 0.759873, "from_high_reference": -0.950238, "from_low_reference": 1.088978 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.471283, "fair_value_reference": 20.571424, "structural_low": 2.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092138, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.174984, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.07967, "worst_return": -0.197297, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.2625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.477624, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.2625, "worst_return": -0.2625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.524096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.3663, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.48, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", 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"relative_strength": -61.172711, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.154354, "energy": 24.728808, "activity_lines": [ 2.968647, 2.994531, 3.105983, 3.289193 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.76, "volume": 22752, "typical_volume": 53765.6, "trend": 3.45295, "fair_value": 20.723505, "relative_strength": -61.959131, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.749751, "energy": 26.890864, "activity_lines": [ 2.903987, 2.935624, 3.059021, 3.245928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.93, "volume": 51108, "typical_volume": 54259.45, "trend": 3.471283, "fair_value": 20.571424, "relative_strength": -55.663754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.802611, "energy": 24.452233, "activity_lines": [ 2.908667, 2.924716, 3.034154, 3.212189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }