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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.09, "architecture_energy": 79.548, "architecture_maturity": 4.405, "architecture_confidence": 60.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.93, "rotation_up": 74.33, "upward_expansion": 89.44, "deceleration": 47.74, "rotation_down": 13.49, "downward_expansion": 16.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.031101, 99.959554, 99.91485, 99.812015 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 100.14, "trend_reference": 99.635941, "distance_from_trend": 0.005059, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.998446, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.963125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010048, "excess_performance": -0.115577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005059, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009045, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002158, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010048, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 788, "relative_activity": 0.458366, "balance": 0.756402, "dry_up": 0.36108, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00122, "annualized_volatility": 0.00585, "from_high_reference": -0.000195, "from_low_reference": 0.029806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.635941, "fair_value_reference": 94.998446, "structural_low": 99.089441, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": 0.003282, "positive_rate": 0.96, "directional_follow_through": 0.96, "median_excess_return": -0.013216, "regime_survival": 0.98, "best_return": 0.007414, "worst_return": -0.000701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.010775, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.046453, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.016398, "worst_return": 0.005947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078176, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.030782, "worst_return": 0.013507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 99.948521, "volume": 407, "typical_volume": 2103.95, "trend": 99.55335, "fair_value": 94.844604, "relative_strength": -6.573671, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.434841, "energy": 46.072478, "activity_lines": [ 99.890544, 99.886106, 99.856982, 99.744751 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 100.05, "volume": 1145, "typical_volume": 2004.65, "trend": 99.59405, "fair_value": 94.921237, "relative_strength": -7.19515, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.156243, "energy": 58.4087, "activity_lines": [ 99.956097, 99.915161, 99.88328, 99.776792 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.14, "volume": 788, "typical_volume": 1719.15, "trend": 99.635941, "fair_value": 94.998446, "relative_strength": -9.963125, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.089791, "energy": 79.54774, "activity_lines": [ 100.031101, 99.959554, 99.91485, 99.812015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }