{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "495061f3-98e8-4630-9ccb-a288a0a08f25",
    "symbol": "MVS",
    "name": "VanEck Small Companies Masters ETF",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 66.251,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": 11.618,
    "architecture_energy": 10.645,
    "architecture_maturity": 17.394,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.434,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 62.25,
        "rotation_up": 28.75,
        "upward_expansion": 29.99,
        "deceleration": 38.66,
        "rotation_down": 24.42,
        "downward_expansion": 45.33
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        20.883333,
        20.759512,
        20.610192,
        20.690432
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Stable",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 21.879999,
    "trend_reference": 21.118035,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.036081,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.414528,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126991,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.380817,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.00413,
    "excess_performance": -0.059575,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.036081,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03276,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126991,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057258,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043808,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007442,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.00413,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.157048,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 43358,
      "relative_activity": 1.52561,
      "balance": 1.157048,
      "dry_up": 1.401007,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031512,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224413,
      "from_high_reference": -0.107667,
      "from_low_reference": 0.14916
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 21.118035,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.414528,
      "structural_low": 19.040001,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": -0.017241,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.384615,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00947,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.057703,
        "worst_return": -0.084261,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.021526,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011452,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.106624,
        "worst_return": -0.092741,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.011747,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023014,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.199451,
        "worst_return": -0.181288,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.058533,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.032475,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.073751,
        "worst_return": -0.107821,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.020178,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.011294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.021728,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.030485,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.026702,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043181,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002003,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.172841,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053013,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.057517,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044252,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-06-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.094308,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-06-26",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06771,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
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        "close": 20.601032,
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": -3.923523,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 30.416365,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -5.105567,
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        "energy": 15.670254,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -5.265434,
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        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 25197.5,
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        "fair_value": 19.316616,
        "relative_strength": -4.931729,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 12.450831,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 47205,
        "typical_volume": 26491.05,
        "trend": 21.387618,
        "fair_value": 19.339088,
        "relative_strength": -6.282317,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -25.971182,
        "energy": 16.915082,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.590486,
          20.590242,
          20.486017,
          20.775939
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 20.16,
        "volume": 36842,
        "typical_volume": 27234.95,
        "trend": 21.278702,
        "fair_value": 19.359445,
        "relative_strength": -7.021348,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -44.211912,
        "energy": 25.840741,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.412163,
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          20.456059,
          20.696738
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 20.48,
        "volume": 31862,
        "typical_volume": 27139.55,
        "trend": 21.179035,
        "fair_value": 19.383321,
        "relative_strength": -7.666373,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -37.308525,
        "energy": 24.162741,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.414,
          20.521345,
          20.465721,
          20.645209
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 21.879999,
        "volume": 43358,
        "typical_volume": 28420.1,
        "trend": 21.118035,
        "fair_value": 19.414528,
        "relative_strength": -4.380817,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 11.617979,
        "energy": 10.644617,
        "activity_lines": [
          20.883333,
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}