{ "ticker": { "uuid": "495199f1-71a8-4175-a153-5e0a1181e2b4", "symbol": "TELW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Communication Services Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.148, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.236, "architecture_energy": 23.48, "architecture_maturity": 35.229, "architecture_confidence": 59.07, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 17.9, "upward_expansion": 17.59, "deceleration": 59.63, "rotation_down": 56.59, "downward_expansion": 40.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.722333, 19.885872, 20.124504, 19.988015 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.01, "trend_reference": 19.8393, "distance_from_trend": 0.008604, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.767295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193395, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.929611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.041537, "excess_performance": -0.011775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008604, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000568, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059296, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126863, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041537, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.005903, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16899, "relative_activity": 0.439925, "balance": 1.005903, "dry_up": 0.364919, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033622, "annualized_volatility": 0.183756, "from_high_reference": -0.064516, "from_low_reference": 0.118815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.8393, "fair_value_reference": 16.767295, "structural_low": 17.885, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01049, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.097845, "worst_return": -0.102503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058309, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.062571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137264, "worst_return": -0.05673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.225838, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.184956, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281259, "worst_return": -0.088658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042732, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029509, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.883433, "energy": 24.651009, "activity_lines": [ 20.247999, 20.390854, 20.245114, 20.043991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.966, "volume": 21817, "typical_volume": 43800.75, "trend": 19.890533, "fair_value": 16.619474, "relative_strength": -2.059361, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.123003, "energy": 18.64509, "activity_lines": [ 20.167333, 20.28809, 20.24579, 20.048965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.356001, "volume": 10832, "typical_volume": 39426.7, "trend": 19.8693, "fair_value": 16.666288, "relative_strength": -5.442409, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.953611, "energy": 14.401244, "activity_lines": [ 19.8986, 20.088872, 20.185538, 20.014479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.299999, "volume": 6523, "typical_volume": 38970.35, "trend": 19.8509, "fair_value": 16.714308, "relative_strength": -7.148928, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.124508, "energy": 28.120495, "activity_lines": [ 19.6808, 19.906545, 20.121057, 19.97775 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.01, "volume": 16899, "typical_volume": 38413.35, "trend": 19.8393, "fair_value": 16.767295, "relative_strength": -5.929611, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.235902, "energy": 23.48045, "activity_lines": [ 19.722333, 19.885872, 20.124504, 19.988015 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }