{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4956faaa-411b-42f4-8564-e05d12bcf605", "symbol": "200025", "name": "Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.847, "architecture_energy": 33.028, "architecture_maturity": 96.91, "architecture_confidence": 88.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.63, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 35.87, "downward_expansion": 67.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.831369, 3.786652, 3.901902, 4.050221 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.93, "trend_reference": 4.243478, "distance_from_trend": -0.073873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.032781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.666357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.153017, "excess_performance": -0.160417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059582, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084894, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136664, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09265, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.725442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 491276, "relative_activity": 1.33035, "balance": 0.725442, "dry_up": 1.208397, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052811, "annualized_volatility": 0.21751, "from_high_reference": -0.207661, "from_low_reference": 0.137649 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.243478, "fair_value_reference": 4.032781, "structural_low": 3.454492, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008044, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.005832, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.11399, "worst_return": -0.107981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.047713, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.018027, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.210427, "worst_return": -0.188918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037252, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035445, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.099056, "worst_return": -0.097475, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 3.641812, 3.746162, 3.969059, 4.128378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.81, "volume": 382806, "typical_volume": 354111.4, "trend": 4.286145, "fair_value": 4.030693, "relative_strength": -14.055505, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.194539, "energy": 63.996781, "activity_lines": [ 3.676855, 3.739356, 3.935943, 4.096068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.91, "volume": 598280, "typical_volume": 370779.4, "trend": 4.264478, "fair_value": 4.031734, "relative_strength": -10.059478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.16604, "energy": 49.876472, "activity_lines": [ 3.757899, 3.758731, 3.916256, 4.0718 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.93, "volume": 491276, "typical_volume": 369283.4, "trend": 4.243478, "fair_value": 4.032781, "relative_strength": -13.666357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.847025, "energy": 33.028425, "activity_lines": [ 3.831369, 3.786652, 3.901902, 4.050221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }