{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4959a104-d411-45ec-b9f6-6f57dfde1900", "symbol": "HL", "name": "Hecla Mining Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.169, "architecture_energy": 36.978, "architecture_maturity": 50.766, "architecture_confidence": 86.525, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.89, "rotation_up": 23.55, "upward_expansion": 4.35, "deceleration": 57.91, "rotation_down": 48.7, "downward_expansion": 77.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.375333, 15.436, 16.131109, 17.119118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.85, "trend_reference": 19.014032, "distance_from_trend": -0.113812, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.081895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.85534, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.769289, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.259696, "excess_performance": -0.385321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113812, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036174, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.85534, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.414554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107693, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282369, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.259696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851816, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175006926, "relative_activity": 1.499643, "balance": 0.851816, "dry_up": 1.792288, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129913, "annualized_volatility": 0.577085, "from_high_reference": -0.506681, "from_low_reference": 1.326773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.014032, "fair_value_reference": 9.081895, "structural_low": 13.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.066929, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018925, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.364044, "worst_return": -0.226504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.15627, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.156293, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.500772, "worst_return": -0.239701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.244133, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.217587, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.415343, "worst_return": -0.063441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 15.883333, 16.049965, 17.000841, 18.238498 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.33, "volume": 207179182, "typical_volume": 100487328.2, "trend": 19.526881, "fair_value": 8.885266, "relative_strength": -19.133808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.341905, "energy": 47.716777, "activity_lines": [ 15.397333, 15.660656, 16.652361, 17.891748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.14, "volume": 287916857, "typical_volume": 109439878.7, "trend": 19.358483, "fair_value": 8.946992, "relative_strength": -14.797986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.789034, "energy": 41.909121, "activity_lines": [ 15.245333, 15.496364, 16.431357, 17.608724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.12, "volume": 166530348, "typical_volume": 113706330.85, "trend": 19.2004, "fair_value": 9.00427, "relative_strength": -22.00221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.203856, "energy": 48.296383, "activity_lines": [ 14.808, 15.192, 16.138172, 17.270757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.85, "volume": 175006926, "typical_volume": 116699067.35, "trend": 19.014032, "fair_value": 9.081895, "relative_strength": -10.769289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.169436, "energy": 36.977682, "activity_lines": [ 15.375333, 15.436, 16.131109, 17.119118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }