{ "ticker": { "uuid": "495a0945-7b89-4389-a15a-99a3accd4ca0", "symbol": "MBRF3", "name": "MBRF Global Foods Company S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.513, "architecture_energy": 27.161, "architecture_maturity": 51.596, "architecture_confidence": 72.333, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.37, "rotation_up": 25.62, "upward_expansion": 11.79, "deceleration": 61.15, "rotation_down": 40.54, "downward_expansion": 68.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.042667, 16.030364, 16.415095, 16.992323 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.07, "trend_reference": 17.741333, "distance_from_trend": -0.094206, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.751634, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.44571, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146121, "excess_performance": -0.089073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094206, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089371, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.184457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116227, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.396475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26180500, "relative_activity": 0.774922, "balance": 0.396475, "dry_up": 1.068424, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094395, "annualized_volatility": 0.601332, "from_high_reference": -0.419017, "from_low_reference": 0.109041 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.741333, "fair_value_reference": 14.751634, "structural_low": 14.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.022422, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.036195, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.377246, "worst_return": -0.257336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028401, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.123117, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.361943, "worst_return": -0.370732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.165679, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.214537, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204258, "worst_return": -0.375608, "sufficient": 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"2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.286094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.132889, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.31506, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162097, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031928, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.298615, "volume": 59743475, "typical_volume": 50430659.9, "trend": 5.953931, "fair_value": 10.218127, "relative_strength": -10.239821, "stage": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.743231, "energy": 35.064771, "activity_lines": [ 16.392, 16.383455, 17.214286, 17.728215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.55, "volume": 33282600, "typical_volume": 40234815.0, "trend": 18.231667, "fair_value": 14.509887, "relative_strength": -27.207813, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.389527, "energy": 41.753522, "activity_lines": [ 16.181334, 16.199273, 16.996, 17.545936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.03, "volume": 38122400, "typical_volume": 37592395.0, "trend": 18.081333, "fair_value": 14.566796, "relative_strength": -26.98751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.525466, "energy": 45.32518, "activity_lines": [ 15.811334, 15.954727, 16.743667, 17.339376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.84, "volume": 36779800, "typical_volume": 37411695.0, "trend": 17.909, "fair_value": 14.623198, "relative_strength": -26.992679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.64307, "energy": 62.186386, "activity_lines": [ 15.442, 15.716182, 16.500143, 17.130258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.54, "volume": 43302800, "typical_volume": 37268930.0, "trend": 17.839, "fair_value": 14.691772, "relative_strength": -14.740745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.157269, "energy": 32.996803, "activity_lines": [ 16.002, 16.015455, 16.529143, 17.106452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.07, "volume": 26180500, "typical_volume": 33784695.0, "trend": 17.741333, "fair_value": 14.751634, "relative_strength": -18.44571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.513046, "energy": 27.160633, "activity_lines": [ 16.042667, 16.030364, 16.415095, 16.992323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }