{ "ticker": { "uuid": "495d59f3-5f2a-4cf0-8e18-b367c04f9201", "symbol": "MAC", "name": "Marechale Capital Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.968, "architecture_energy": 21.485, "architecture_maturity": 76.162, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.09, "rotation_up": 20.71, "upward_expansion": 53.29, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 29.44, "downward_expansion": 19.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0481, 0.054091, 0.046621, 0.04002 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0475, "trend_reference": 0.0328, "distance_from_trend": 0.448171, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.019362, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.453236, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 69.263924, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.065217, "excess_performance": 1.013982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.448171, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.679181, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.453236, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.316951, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.692639, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.741795, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.065217, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.37171, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10746111, "relative_activity": 1.285925, "balance": 6.37171, "dry_up": 1.22499, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.37668, "annualized_volatility": 1.472686, "from_high_reference": -0.472222, "from_low_reference": 2.653846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0328, "fair_value_reference": 0.019362, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.026316, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.027444, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.756757, "worst_return": -0.157895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.030199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.473684, "worst_return": -0.088235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018791, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083596, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.241379, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.211694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464286, "worst_return": -0.206897, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.423077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.297297, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108696, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.202485, "energy": 27.974545, "activity_lines": [ 0.052533, 0.056273, 0.044455, 0.037945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0475, "volume": 9567797, "typical_volume": 7851509.15, "trend": 0.031917, "fair_value": 0.019183, "relative_strength": 72.488381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.748918, "energy": 25.093842, "activity_lines": [ 0.049567, 0.055427, 0.045602, 0.039015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0475, "volume": 10746111, "typical_volume": 8356715.15, "trend": 0.0328, "fair_value": 0.019362, "relative_strength": 69.263924, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.968374, "energy": 21.484666, "activity_lines": [ 0.0481, 0.054091, 0.046621, 0.04002 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }