{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4961698a-d9b9-4a90-ae3a-59a3337a1f57", "symbol": "MDIA", "name": "Mediaco Holding Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.342, "architecture_energy": 30.545, "architecture_maturity": 27.839, "architecture_confidence": 67.262, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.25, "rotation_up": 49.19, "upward_expansion": 76.28, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 19.93, "downward_expansion": 2.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.966433, 0.947255, 0.909857, 0.860787 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.9473, "trend_reference": 0.791493, "distance_from_trend": 0.196851, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.216529, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221309, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.994533, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.719238, "excess_performance": 0.531784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196851, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048349, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003674, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.719238, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.600407, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163343, "relative_activity": 0.397327, "balance": 1.600407, "dry_up": 0.265281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20659, "annualized_volatility": 0.504191, "from_high_reference": -0.422378, "from_low_reference": 0.760748 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.791493, "fair_value_reference": 1.216529, "structural_low": 0.5614, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.032383, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.082103, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.223684, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.27654, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.307874, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.138806, "worst_return": -0.650602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.588806, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.652482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.176119, "worst_return": -0.701031, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163276, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.223289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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"up", "direction": 57.395623, "energy": 42.953947, "activity_lines": [ 0.93542, 0.886541, 0.857006, 0.806913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 128476, "typical_volume": 409813.1, "trend": 0.75758, "fair_value": 1.214642, "relative_strength": -2.815337, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.004889, "energy": 54.94657, "activity_lines": [ 0.977213, 0.909984, 0.876414, 0.823999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0, "volume": 84747, "typical_volume": 408636.35, "trend": 0.76896, "fair_value": 1.214323, "relative_strength": -1.076853, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.292136, "energy": 56.177507, "activity_lines": [ 0.998253, 0.930635, 0.893013, 0.839639 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.93, "volume": 59668, "typical_volume": 408905.8, "trend": 0.78054, "fair_value": 1.214483, "relative_strength": -7.38129, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.142572, "energy": 46.204975, "activity_lines": [ 0.98, 0.937615, 0.901278, 0.850029 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9473, "volume": 163343, "typical_volume": 411105.0, "trend": 0.791493, "fair_value": 1.216529, "relative_strength": -8.994533, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.342421, "energy": 30.544682, "activity_lines": [ 0.966433, 0.947255, 0.909857, 0.860787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }