{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4967136e-2417-4c05-be4a-b788b2a04b40", "symbol": "XLIS", "name": "Invesco Industrials S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.939, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.876, "architecture_energy": 59.941, "architecture_maturity": 78.076, "architecture_confidence": 67.018, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.46, "rotation_up": 55.92, "upward_expansion": 82.68, "deceleration": 68.54, "rotation_down": 27.04, "downward_expansion": 9.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1011.559998, 1009.059995, 991.089521, 977.260215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1027.599976, "trend_reference": 961.506671, "distance_from_trend": 0.068739, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 761.169874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.350027, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.722413, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079185, "excess_performance": -0.003698, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068739, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.350027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017224, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.283889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137, "relative_activity": 0.34366, "balance": 0.283889, "dry_up": 0.366863, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019485, "annualized_volatility": 0.161963, "from_high_reference": -0.007342, "from_low_reference": 0.260086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 961.506671, "fair_value_reference": 761.169874, "structural_low": 878.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.010563, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.00069, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.067249, "worst_return": -0.064519, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028883, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.013676, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.109032, "worst_return": -0.049705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.090551, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.010533, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.149722, "worst_return": -0.049564, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 1008.786658, 997.450902, 976.921426, 965.61484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1018.0, "volume": 152, "typical_volume": 445.85, "trend": 952.783337, "fair_value": 755.698079, "relative_strength": 2.283367, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.955857, "energy": 76.43151, "activity_lines": [ 1011.639994, 1003.370903, 982.422855, 970.149033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 992.400024, "volume": 282, "typical_volume": 425.3, "trend": 956.993339, "fair_value": 758.315387, "relative_strength": -0.377224, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.942925, "energy": 52.010255, "activity_lines": [ 1005.160006, 1003.430908, 985.26619, 972.704948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1027.599976, "volume": 137, "typical_volume": 398.65, "trend": 961.506671, "fair_value": 761.169874, "relative_strength": 1.722413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.875702, "energy": 59.940653, "activity_lines": [ 1011.559998, 1009.059995, 991.089521, 977.260215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }