{ "ticker": { "uuid": "496e1815-08dd-498a-8857-b40c3421c715", "symbol": "OSBC", "name": "Old Second Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.976, "architecture_energy": 90.217, "architecture_maturity": 47.176, "architecture_confidence": 83.648, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 81.27, "upward_expansion": 97.1, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 9.82, "downward_expansion": 21.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.681822, 23.945905, 22.876196, 22.173009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.44, "trend_reference": 21.383451, "distance_from_trend": 0.189705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.964475, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499604, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.990493, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.213197, "excess_performance": 0.025743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068111, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499604, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.109905, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162633, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.213197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.573771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2415322, "relative_activity": 1.214785, "balance": 2.573771, "dry_up": 1.182682, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045545, "annualized_volatility": 0.249072, "from_high_reference": -0.023041, "from_low_reference": 0.544481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.383451, "fair_value_reference": 16.964475, "structural_low": 18.846544, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.001312, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.003443, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.108531, "worst_return": -0.135688, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.015, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.028299, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.126606, "worst_return": -0.337139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.010327, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.144597, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.086896, "worst_return": -0.327197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 65.759587, "activity_lines": [ 22.868267, 22.363178, 21.668252, 21.238303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.574748, "volume": 2083622, "typical_volume": 1933189.25, "trend": 20.852134, "fair_value": 16.781139, "relative_strength": 8.064728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.095041, "energy": 72.048938, "activity_lines": [ 23.146639, 22.660984, 21.907711, 21.420807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.963671, "volume": 2520181, "typical_volume": 1962984.65, "trend": 20.99214, "fair_value": 16.835934, "relative_strength": 11.374952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.466796, "energy": 75.200368, "activity_lines": [ 23.483002, 22.987781, 22.165112, 21.621551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.29, "volume": 2386844, "typical_volume": 1973460.75, "trend": 21.190261, "fair_value": 16.898182, "relative_strength": 16.397287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.571552, "energy": 83.861301, "activity_lines": [ 24.12323, 23.491479, 22.5275, 21.898832 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.44, "volume": 2415322, "typical_volume": 1988271.5, "trend": 21.383451, "fair_value": 16.964475, "relative_strength": 10.990493, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.976275, "energy": 90.216921, "activity_lines": [ 24.681822, 23.945905, 22.876196, 22.173009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }