{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49726c53-4d73-4fca-aec1-ad14c6358c3c", "symbol": "603000", "name": "People.cn CO., LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.64, "architecture_energy": 32.931, "architecture_maturity": 88.478, "architecture_confidence": 90.508, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.12, "rotation_up": 27.55, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 35.39, "downward_expansion": 67.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.29195, 15.923028, 16.696606, 17.723135 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.1, "trend_reference": 19.398335, "distance_from_trend": -0.118481, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.700891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.378746, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.300327, "excess_performance": -0.257124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058638, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246726, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.300327, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.507658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121683115, "relative_activity": 1.592684, "balance": 0.507658, "dry_up": 1.301247, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079556, "annualized_volatility": 0.382987, "from_high_reference": -0.445345, "from_low_reference": 0.210071 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.398335, "fair_value_reference": 22.700891, "structural_low": 14.131399, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.018518, "positive_rate": 0.37037, "directional_follow_through": 0.62963, "median_excess_return": -0.012275, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.370244, "worst_return": -0.228163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.006685, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.044739, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.240339, "worst_return": -0.222211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029623, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.113747, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.043845, "worst_return": -0.26619, "sufficient": 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16.140488, 17.436655, 18.632211 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.25, "volume": 94684458, "typical_volume": 83793127.95, "trend": 19.651669, "fair_value": 22.947527, "relative_strength": -19.669921, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.584958, "energy": 65.939582, "activity_lines": [ 15.279096, 15.828305, 17.124845, 18.339695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.16, "volume": 87125369, "typical_volume": 79012926.2, "trend": 19.531669, "fair_value": 22.880751, "relative_strength": -20.642804, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.05192, "energy": 62.845442, "activity_lines": [ 15.230714, 15.585213, 16.842987, 18.04991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.83, "volume": 94174783, "typical_volume": 76733781.15, "trend": 19.463335, "fair_value": 22.774551, "relative_strength": -11.84169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.095205, "energy": 44.786353, "activity_lines": [ 15.792732, 15.716848, 16.748701, 17.875608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.1, "volume": 121683115, "typical_volume": 76401268.2, "trend": 19.398335, "fair_value": 22.700891, "relative_strength": -12.378746, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.640426, "energy": 32.931142, "activity_lines": [ 16.29195, 15.923028, 16.696606, 17.723135 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }