{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4976b2de-a99f-473f-b66f-ed7c3c0fb46d", "symbol": "TDEC", "name": "FT VEST EMERGING MARKETS BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.67, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.164, "architecture_energy": 35.937, "architecture_maturity": 31.299, "architecture_confidence": 53.284, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.47, "rotation_up": 42.87, "upward_expansion": 74.95, "deceleration": 68.59, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 3.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.14432, 26.092984, 26.020038, 25.779948 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.5332, "trend_reference": 25.518003, "distance_from_trend": 0.039784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.191855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.144074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.98374, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.046596, "excess_performance": -0.079029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.144074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019367, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046596, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4627, "relative_activity": 0.153237, "balance": 1.012275, "dry_up": 0.419705, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018943, "annualized_volatility": 0.129319, "from_high_reference": -0.001761, "from_low_reference": 0.181606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.518003, "fair_value_reference": 23.191855, "structural_low": 23.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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44633.3, "trend": 25.28089, "fair_value": 23.051095, "relative_strength": -3.235977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.193477, "energy": 43.997471, "activity_lines": [ 26.12786, 26.085358, 25.834561, 25.606788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6948, "volume": 24498, "typical_volume": 44310.0, "trend": 25.343827, "fair_value": 23.083335, "relative_strength": -3.428544, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.164727, "energy": 25.082891, "activity_lines": [ 25.97456, 26.014433, 25.853718, 25.633492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.8248, "volume": 13887, "typical_volume": 36975.25, "trend": 25.402987, "fair_value": 23.116365, "relative_strength": -2.330379, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.348891, "energy": 18.650237, "activity_lines": [ 25.891273, 25.979642, 25.884995, 25.664523 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.1162, "volume": 7680, "typical_volume": 32288.95, "trend": 25.45732, "fair_value": 23.152077, "relative_strength": -2.247439, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.593575, "energy": 21.809763, "activity_lines": [ 25.948667, 25.999533, 25.937108, 25.710537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.5332, "volume": 4627, "typical_volume": 30195.05, "trend": 25.518003, "fair_value": 23.191855, "relative_strength": -3.98374, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.163968, "energy": 35.936593, "activity_lines": [ 26.14432, 26.092984, 26.020038, 25.779948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }