{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4976e5bf-b5c8-4fd0-ac76-1467e6873ed2", "symbol": "KEFI", "name": "KEFI Gold and Copper Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.543, "architecture_energy": 22.735, "architecture_maturity": 65.154, "architecture_confidence": 93.485, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.27, "rotation_up": 29.41, "upward_expansion": 17.91, "deceleration": 43.21, "rotation_down": 34.08, "downward_expansion": 67.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.011115, 0.010831, 0.011323, 0.012081 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.01262, "trend_reference": 0.013074, "distance_from_trend": -0.03475, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.008156, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.547274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.085605, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.129655, "excess_performance": -0.18089, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03475, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.547274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121768, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080856, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.129655, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 336653354, "relative_activity": 1.00426, "balance": 0.559436, "dry_up": 0.556099, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106364, "annualized_volatility": 0.78232, "from_high_reference": -0.390338, "from_low_reference": 1.337037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013074, "fair_value_reference": 0.008156, "structural_low": 0.00979, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.012998, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004777, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.348409, "worst_return": -0.369512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.105169, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.072414, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.46087, "worst_return": -0.36988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030404, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035623, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.212833, "worst_return": -0.537952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.010297, 0.010688, 0.011592, 0.012466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01014, "volume": 169107919, "typical_volume": 356188936.9, "trend": 0.01314, "fair_value": 0.008087, "relative_strength": -23.921982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.11841, "energy": 67.170993, "activity_lines": [ 0.010204, 0.01052, 0.011378, 0.012266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0107, "volume": 102073188, "typical_volume": 347900847.25, "trend": 0.013054, "fair_value": 0.008114, "relative_strength": -21.167167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.846548, "energy": 52.741704, "activity_lines": [ 0.010347, 0.010494, 0.011245, 0.012109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.01262, "volume": 336653354, "typical_volume": 335225188.55, "trend": 0.013074, "fair_value": 0.008156, "relative_strength": -8.085605, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.543291, "energy": 22.735219, "activity_lines": [ 0.011115, 0.010831, 0.011323, 0.012081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }