{ "ticker": { "uuid": "497bae48-3ec5-4f85-94a2-cfdb9705ff63", "symbol": "FLU", "name": "Flughafen Wien Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.189, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.287, "architecture_energy": 17.861, "architecture_maturity": 11.001, "architecture_confidence": 43.556, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.74, "rotation_up": 41.34, "upward_expansion": 38.94, "deceleration": 29.94, "rotation_down": 17.81, "downward_expansion": 42.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.133332, 50.911937, 50.053004, 50.31619 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.599998, "trend_reference": 51.138991, "distance_from_trend": 0.009015, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.518301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021412, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.803667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.047971, "excess_performance": -0.222217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02457, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021412, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053815, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.198037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033085, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047971, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.134302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2594, "relative_activity": 0.418874, "balance": 1.134302, "dry_up": 0.888653, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027826, "annualized_volatility": 0.13717, "from_high_reference": -0.078571, "from_low_reference": 0.100075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.138991, "fair_value_reference": 50.518301, "structural_low": 46.905876, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.011237, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0288, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.044776, "worst_return": -0.091068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.061251, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230769, "worst_return": -0.091068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075856, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.455565, "worst_return": -0.087248, "sufficient": true }, { 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50.877105, 49.722098, 49.650379, 50.569198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 50.200001, "volume": 6987, "typical_volume": 7175.7, "trend": 51.765658, "fair_value": 50.339417, "relative_strength": -22.258513, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.890921, "energy": 24.038302, "activity_lines": [ 50.826667, 49.939229, 49.639095, 50.460876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.599998, "volume": 7001, "typical_volume": 7205.75, "trend": 51.578991, "fair_value": 50.375484, "relative_strength": -21.099536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.606442, "energy": 18.715412, "activity_lines": [ 50.453333, 50.010236, 49.594477, 50.321156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.799999, "volume": 7466, "typical_volume": 7120.65, "trend": 51.412325, "fair_value": 50.418638, "relative_strength": -19.762646, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.936857, "energy": 11.75162, "activity_lines": [ 50.506666, 50.276816, 49.68605, 50.270899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 4952, "typical_volume": 6834.75, "trend": 51.285658, "fair_value": 50.470322, "relative_strength": -17.598186, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 11.111905, "energy": 14.298787, "activity_lines": [ 50.866666, 50.656171, 49.878575, 50.29591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.599998, "volume": 2594, "typical_volume": 6192.8, "trend": 51.138991, "fair_value": 50.518301, "relative_strength": -19.803667, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.287091, "energy": 17.861298, "activity_lines": [ 51.133332, 50.911937, 50.053004, 50.31619 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }