{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49865d81-97b2-4844-ad09-4c36482ca85d", "symbol": "TRAXIONA", "name": "Grupo Traxi\u00f3n, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.933, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 3.467, "architecture_energy": 14.084, "architecture_maturity": 20.917, "architecture_confidence": 63.631, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.54, "rotation_up": 38.49, "upward_expansion": 28.27, "deceleration": 46.22, "rotation_down": 17.17, "downward_expansion": 47.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.362667, 11.065636, 10.950048, 11.293505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.89, "trend_reference": 11.828, "distance_from_trend": 0.005242, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.211923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.411733, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.635614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.08749, "excess_performance": -0.032824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005242, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083693, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.411733, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113797, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262184, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.08749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.882876, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2248197, "relative_activity": 0.839904, "balance": 0.882876, "dry_up": 0.910589, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072718, "annualized_volatility": 0.430638, "from_high_reference": -0.255479, "from_low_reference": 0.235967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.828, "fair_value_reference": 20.211923, "structural_low": 9.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.058281, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.031778, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.062059, "worst_return": -0.156743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.102427, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.099919, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": -0.015199, "worst_return": -0.246827, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147965, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.121906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.108397, "worst_return": -0.225029, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106866, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060788, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.327425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098421, "active": false }, { 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10.584545, 10.908, 11.398301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.65, "volume": 1671113, "typical_volume": 2792829.3, "trend": 11.978, "fair_value": 20.464615, "relative_strength": -20.81068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.462312, "energy": 22.898533, "activity_lines": [ 10.673333, 10.618, 10.838333, 11.304796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.8, "volume": 2666207, "typical_volume": 2765078.3, "trend": 11.887, "fair_value": 20.321539, "relative_strength": -12.102908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.300702, "energy": 11.116179, "activity_lines": [ 11.048, 10.849818, 10.889429, 11.293312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.89, "volume": 2248197, "typical_volume": 2676730.05, "trend": 11.828, "fair_value": 20.211923, "relative_strength": -10.635614, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.467178, "energy": 14.083982, "activity_lines": [ 11.362667, 11.065636, 10.950048, 11.293505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }