{ "ticker": { "uuid": "498db473-ead9-4ae8-9ad8-ee4a134c58d8", "symbol": "PILANIINVS", "name": "Pilani Investment and Industries Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.295, "architecture_energy": 33.801, "architecture_maturity": 22.676, "architecture_confidence": 93.675, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.65, "rotation_up": 20.62, "upward_expansion": 4.4, "deceleration": 47.02, "rotation_down": 46.16, "downward_expansion": 75.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 4351.506673, 4363.481934, 4428.001876, 4468.952451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4370.700195, "trend_reference": 4522.032324, "distance_from_trend": -0.033466, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4392.69703, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.724347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052053, "excess_performance": -0.008344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033466, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005008, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052053, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5303, "relative_activity": 0.611286, "balance": 0.578837, "dry_up": 0.626617, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047074, "annualized_volatility": 0.295768, "from_high_reference": -0.269114, "from_low_reference": 0.068056 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4522.032324, "fair_value_reference": 4392.69703, "structural_low": 4092.199951, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.03328, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.006444, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.311105, "worst_return": -0.121306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.044167, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.179177, "worst_return": -0.088113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.144468, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.065555, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.297959, "worst_return": -0.057926, "sufficient": false }, 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4347.257849, "relative_strength": -8.234136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.534327, "energy": 24.437481, "activity_lines": [ 4405.250521, 4394.29842, 4477.127162, 4514.917638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4311.399902, "volume": 4788, "typical_volume": 13453.0, "trend": 4569.215658, "fair_value": 4362.262957, "relative_strength": -7.413551, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.108393, "energy": 30.445161, "activity_lines": [ 4373.6625, 4376.273517, 4457.809203, 4496.022858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4319.799805, "volume": 4813, "typical_volume": 12986.1, "trend": 4540.875651, "fair_value": 4377.214694, "relative_strength": -9.331852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.043861, "energy": 31.776762, "activity_lines": [ 4351.806608, 4362.386781, 4440.558378, 4479.931513 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4370.700195, "volume": 5303, "typical_volume": 8675.15, "trend": 4522.032324, "fair_value": 4392.69703, "relative_strength": -8.724347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.294661, "energy": 33.801247, "activity_lines": [ 4351.506673, 4363.481934, 4428.001876, 4468.952451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }