{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49a30764-d819-49c8-ad61-d2b77f650110", "symbol": "BASS", "name": "BASSAC Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.957, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.626, "architecture_energy": 18.809, "architecture_maturity": 69.007, "architecture_confidence": 85.205, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.66, "rotation_up": 27.38, "upward_expansion": 15.88, "deceleration": 42.45, "rotation_down": 32.92, "downward_expansion": 63.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.886666, 44.68, 45.083685, 45.606564 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 45.799999, "trend_reference": 46.717029, "distance_from_trend": -0.019629, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.046789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.820981, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.082004, "excess_performance": -0.135316, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019629, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021965, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00536, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023244, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.082004, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.542715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7781, "relative_activity": 1.008372, "balance": 1.542715, "dry_up": 1.193432, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03618, "annualized_volatility": 0.222372, "from_high_reference": -0.214467, "from_low_reference": 0.128079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.717029, "fair_value_reference": 46.046789, "structural_low": 40.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.001111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.018937, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.295, "worst_return": -0.177273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.038936, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.039824, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.532847, "worst_return": -0.149068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.015115, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018548, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.435274, "worst_return": -0.251553, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.158324, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 44.54, 44.742569, 45.279679, 46.038322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.200001, "volume": 14651, "typical_volume": 8403.7, "trend": 47.020217, "fair_value": 46.006126, "relative_strength": -11.678109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.425565, "energy": 35.48225, "activity_lines": [ 44.46, 44.578063, 45.143996, 45.84834 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.299999, "volume": 8592, "typical_volume": 8097.35, "trend": 46.827319, "fair_value": 46.020454, "relative_strength": -12.254188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.636244, "energy": 32.175713, "activity_lines": [ 44.433333, 44.483636, 45.038882, 45.672842 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.799999, "volume": 7781, "typical_volume": 7716.4, "trend": 46.717029, "fair_value": 46.046789, "relative_strength": -10.820981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.626452, "energy": 18.808673, "activity_lines": [ 44.886666, 44.68, 45.083685, 45.606564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }