{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "49ac8126-7651-4789-aa9a-64071e496611",
    "symbol": "GBS",
    "name": "Gold Bullion Securities",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 53.679,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -50.989,
    "architecture_energy": 47.534,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.552,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.933,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.56,
        "rotation_up": 26.11,
        "upward_expansion": 19.42,
        "deceleration": 66.78,
        "rotation_down": 45.98,
        "downward_expansion": 69.42
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        330.061997,
        329.501451,
        338.729094,
        348.534666
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 343.649994,
    "trend_reference": 360.686999,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.047235,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 255.988332,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342444,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -13.466996,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.101428,
    "excess_performance": -0.272319,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.047235,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002982,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.342444,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.171747,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.13467,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.137049,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101428,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.779933,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 13084,
      "relative_activity": 0.981512,
      "balance": 0.779933,
      "dry_up": 0.717943,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.033869,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224035,
      "from_high_reference": -0.191412,
      "from_low_reference": 0.316667
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 360.686999,
      "fair_value_reference": 255.988332,
      "structural_low": 316.5,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.011651,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023353,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.04708,
        "worst_return": -0.035583,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.045395,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017136,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.086398,
        "worst_return": 0.00121,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.078369,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.107647,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.087713,
        "worst_return": 0.069026,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.177819,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.091139,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.291684,
        "worst_return": 0.063953,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2023-07-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001777,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-08-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "return": 0.0,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2023-11-10",
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        "return": -0.035647,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-05-31",
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        "return": 0.177562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-07-05",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 250.688525,
        "relative_strength": -15.083116,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "trend": 362.863999,
        "fair_value": 251.755191,
        "relative_strength": -16.003406,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 320.339996,
        "volume": 11879,
        "typical_volume": 15512.05,
        "trend": 362.218666,
        "fair_value": 252.764037,
        "relative_strength": -16.613032,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -79.600548,
        "energy": 88.755304,
        "activity_lines": [
          326.321326,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 326.950012,
        "volume": 7996,
        "typical_volume": 14528.6,
        "trend": 361.561999,
        "fair_value": 253.805512,
        "relative_strength": -14.744069,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -64.933573,
        "energy": 63.539208,
        "activity_lines": [
          326.083998,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 320.899994,
        "volume": 5323,
        "typical_volume": 13616.1,
        "trend": 361.045333,
        "fair_value": 254.821025,
        "relative_strength": -16.805944,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.306723,
        "energy": 66.401733,
        "activity_lines": [
          324.077331,
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          349.656946
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 343.649994,
        "volume": 13084,
        "typical_volume": 13330.45,
        "trend": 360.686999,
        "fair_value": 255.988332,
        "relative_strength": -13.466996,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.989255,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}