{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49b550c9-2f54-4854-8cfe-72587fbdf91c", "symbol": "GECC", "name": "Great Elm Capital Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.742, "architecture_energy": 13.126, "architecture_maturity": 21.761, "architecture_confidence": 54.992, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.47, "rotation_up": 31.72, "upward_expansion": 30.56, "deceleration": 46.2, "rotation_down": 39.36, "downward_expansion": 25.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.436667, 5.414206, 5.40401, 5.331515 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.88, "trend_reference": 5.365564, "distance_from_trend": 0.095877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.883861, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.145828, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.013956, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030792, "excess_performance": -0.156662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04454, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.145828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17014, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030792, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.219863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 349825, "relative_activity": 0.919126, "balance": 1.219863, "dry_up": 0.713144, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079268, "annualized_volatility": 0.353596, "from_high_reference": -0.378173, "from_low_reference": 0.3767 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.365564, "fair_value_reference": 6.883861, "structural_low": 4.271084, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.000979, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.004343, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.233656, "worst_return": -0.051843, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.022395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016389, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.086571, "worst_return": -0.222808, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023972, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171336, "worst_return": -0.352893, "sufficient": false }, 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.043638, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022115, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.129273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128959, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.119939, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010969, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107345, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.965076, "volume": 156134, "typical_volume": 168996.85, "trend": 4.941169, "fair_value": 7.11685, "relative_strength": 1.508124, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 5.34, "volume": 222162, "typical_volume": 478612.8, "trend": 5.423361, "fair_value": 6.885054, "relative_strength": -25.082345, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.544409, "energy": 7.387477, "activity_lines": [ 5.344, 5.431878, 5.341711, 5.32885 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.22, "volume": 198677, "typical_volume": 453173.05, "trend": 5.401419, "fair_value": 6.886741, "relative_strength": -24.45825, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.108574, "energy": 19.427722, "activity_lines": [ 5.290667, 5.384179, 5.345579, 5.31573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 315044, "typical_volume": 428585.2, "trend": 5.373912, "fair_value": 6.882952, "relative_strength": -24.81769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.270402, "energy": 24.509826, "activity_lines": [ 5.227333, 5.330845, 5.340573, 5.298864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.88, "volume": 349825, "typical_volume": 380606.1, "trend": 5.365564, "fair_value": 6.883861, "relative_strength": -17.013956, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.741588, "energy": 13.126392, "activity_lines": [ 5.436667, 5.414206, 5.40401, 5.331515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }