{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49b8399c-0bfd-4b7a-9570-78155e532ce7", "symbol": "3051", "name": "Optimax Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.704, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.561, "architecture_energy": 31.596, "architecture_maturity": 9.6, "architecture_confidence": 62.164, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.36, "rotation_up": 17.71, "upward_expansion": 20.11, "deceleration": 54.23, "rotation_down": 55.41, "downward_expansion": 47.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.756215, 23.196212, 24.357305, 24.014264 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.6, "trend_reference": 23.664993, "distance_from_trend": -0.045003, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.551977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.148839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.65892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04388, "excess_performance": -0.301852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045003, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081516, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.148839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.246589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069559, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673777, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1681927, "relative_activity": 0.120831, "balance": 0.673777, "dry_up": 0.18392, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109841, "annualized_volatility": 0.486586, "from_high_reference": -0.263632, "from_low_reference": 0.298985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.664993, "fair_value_reference": 26.551977, "structural_low": 19.157563, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023018, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.04999, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209491, "worst_return": -0.063235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.079557, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.052014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.575488, "worst_return": -0.199489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053736, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.137032, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533001, "worst_return": -0.185787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 14043511.6, "trend": 23.334432, "fair_value": 26.54216, "relative_strength": -27.164782, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.969683, "energy": 31.680691, "activity_lines": [ 22.64046, 24.15399, 24.679325, 24.102816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.9, "volume": 2463988, "typical_volume": 13923926.8, "trend": 23.49339, "fair_value": 26.547244, "relative_strength": -23.849805, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.539859, "energy": 39.18214, "activity_lines": [ 22.421799, 23.731718, 24.571237, 24.074788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.6, "volume": 2715438, "typical_volume": 13915637.75, "trend": 23.644729, "fair_value": 26.554244, "relative_strength": -23.29389, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.727999, "energy": 36.794294, "activity_lines": [ 22.721302, 23.516177, 24.52014, 24.081666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 22.6, "volume": 1681927, "typical_volume": 13919624.1, "trend": 23.664993, "fair_value": 26.551977, "relative_strength": -24.65892, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.560908, "energy": 31.595549, "activity_lines": [ 22.756215, 23.196212, 24.357305, 24.014264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }