{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49b89bd9-1313-426a-8901-45eb8062b9b5", "symbol": "MRQ", "name": "MRG Metals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.082, "architecture_energy": 23.099, "architecture_maturity": 28.496, "architecture_confidence": 86.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.34, "rotation_up": 24.96, "upward_expansion": 10.26, "deceleration": 48.51, "rotation_down": 40.57, "downward_expansion": 65.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003433, 0.003491, 0.003493, 0.003565 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.0038, "distance_from_trend": -0.210526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.003279, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.085044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.37436, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.085044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.162544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21282653, "relative_activity": 5.592039, "balance": 0.162544, "dry_up": 1.680386, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217949, "annualized_volatility": 1.010485, "from_high_reference": -0.571429, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0038, "fair_value_reference": 0.003279, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.026449, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.666667, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.039507, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 4.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.072257, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.363636, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.27387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.25, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.0025, "volume": 20610469, "typical_volume": 15380829.25, "trend": 0.003167, "fair_value": 0.007606, "relative_strength": -38.786158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.853346, "energy": 18.85649, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 75000, "typical_volume": 4418461.35, "trend": 0.003917, "fair_value": 0.003269, "relative_strength": -14.986073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.591265, "energy": 13.790576, "activity_lines": [ 0.003533, 0.003473, 0.0035, 0.00364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.004, "volume": 2866666, "typical_volume": 4111341.55, "trend": 0.003883, "fair_value": 0.003276, "relative_strength": -2.548772, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.701173, "energy": 10.594216, "activity_lines": [ 0.0037, 0.003573, 0.003545, 0.003645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 1357102, "typical_volume": 3266531.25, "trend": 0.003867, "fair_value": 0.003279, "relative_strength": -16.624147, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.281282, "energy": 10.313559, "activity_lines": [ 0.003667, 0.003582, 0.003543, 0.00362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 21282653, "typical_volume": 3805883.9, "trend": 0.0038, "fair_value": 0.003279, "relative_strength": -30.37436, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.082008, "energy": 23.098957, "activity_lines": [ 0.003433, 0.003491, 0.003493, 0.003565 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }