{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49bb3a9d-e69e-411d-987b-6938880c3351", "symbol": "PBD", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 67.025, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.493, "architecture_energy": 55.154, "architecture_maturity": 7.163, "architecture_confidence": 78.807, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.9, "rotation_up": 14.74, "upward_expansion": 26.63, "deceleration": 50.24, "rotation_down": 69.95, "downward_expansion": 56.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.890333, 18.381226, 19.314324, 19.236408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.225, "trend_reference": 18.975191, "distance_from_trend": -0.039535, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.364035, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.021703, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012483, "excess_performance": -0.113142, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391282, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 341658, "relative_activity": 1.195051, "balance": 0.391282, "dry_up": 0.971468, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065417, "annualized_volatility": 0.241863, "from_high_reference": -0.189774, "from_low_reference": 0.359389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.975191, "fair_value_reference": 14.364035, "structural_low": 16.74, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": 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22.644054, "activity_lines": [ 19.507497, 20.238821, 20.035534, 19.506743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.63, "volume": 296074, "typical_volume": 294199.25, "trend": 18.791362, "fair_value": 14.365234, "relative_strength": -1.972813, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.637459, "energy": 24.505531, "activity_lines": [ 19.110136, 19.867851, 19.952399, 19.501787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.15, "volume": 222331, "typical_volume": 289637.7, "trend": 18.860572, "fair_value": 14.362425, "relative_strength": -3.213517, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.794911, "energy": 38.754742, "activity_lines": [ 18.688829, 19.451242, 19.822311, 19.460409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.68, "volume": 137515, "typical_volume": 279116.8, "trend": 18.904169, "fair_value": 14.357109, "relative_strength": -5.309757, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.614623, "energy": 53.750616, "activity_lines": [ 18.255333, 19.015479, 19.648366, 19.384243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.315, "volume": 409444, "typical_volume": 288465.85, "trend": 18.927275, "fair_value": 14.35595, "relative_strength": -8.404124, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.483433, "energy": 64.261469, "activity_lines": [ 17.869667, 18.576424, 19.437664, 19.281716 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.225, "volume": 341658, "typical_volume": 285894.05, "trend": 18.975191, "fair_value": 14.364035, "relative_strength": -7.021703, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.493445, "energy": 55.154056, "activity_lines": [ 17.890333, 18.381226, 19.314324, 19.236408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }