{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "49c073d4-dfdb-4dd1-a199-68454435a63a",
    "symbol": "XDEW",
    "name": "Xtrackers S&P 500 Equal Weight UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 81.485,
    "architecture_energy": 70.102,
    "architecture_maturity": 79.958,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.338,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 4.89,
        "rotation_up": 62.87,
        "upward_expansion": 87.67,
        "deceleration": 65.78,
        "rotation_down": 27.29,
        "downward_expansion": 12.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        104.777332,
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        101.945191,
        99.976323
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 105.93,
    "trend_reference": 97.722,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.083993,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 86.983808,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.217813,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.820422,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.124761,
    "excess_performance": -0.046131,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083993,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046674,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.217813,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.07949,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038204,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027197,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124761,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.669048,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 107450,
      "relative_activity": 1.084296,
      "balance": 1.669048,
      "dry_up": 1.221944,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01705,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.081051,
      "from_high_reference": -0.007589,
      "from_low_reference": 0.228459
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 97.722,
      "fair_value_reference": 86.983808,
      "structural_low": 90.599998,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 34,
        "median_return": 0.008983,
        "positive_rate": 0.588235,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.588235,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003927,
        "regime_survival": 0.705882,
        "best_return": 0.045889,
        "worst_return": -0.079506,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.008675,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000913,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.103952,
        "worst_return": -0.13855,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.045608,
        "positive_rate": 0.857143,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.857143,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004356,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
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        "worst_return": -0.068757,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": 0.040879,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 109906.65,
        "trend": 96.407334,
        "fair_value": 86.394257,
        "relative_strength": -2.332369,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 71.657205,
        "energy": 89.324008,
        "activity_lines": [
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          100.09681,
          98.440495
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 104.739998,
        "volume": 121178,
        "typical_volume": 101416.6,
        "trend": 96.88,
        "fair_value": 86.585731,
        "relative_strength": -1.626281,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.189171,
        "energy": 85.071322,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 103.739998,
        "volume": 154334,
        "typical_volume": 99962.25,
        "trend": 97.317333,
        "fair_value": 86.776885,
        "relative_strength": -3.109512,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.372685,
        "energy": 66.063098,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.251332,
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          101.267762,
          99.420667
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 105.93,
        "volume": 107450,
        "typical_volume": 99096.6,
        "trend": 97.722,
        "fair_value": 86.983808,
        "relative_strength": -3.820422,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.484849,
        "energy": 70.101896,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}