{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49c92a9f-fef1-427b-af39-97148a6f04ca", "symbol": "SRECHA", "name": "UBS SXI Real Estate Funds ETF CHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 86.534, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.816, "architecture_energy": 21.548, "architecture_maturity": 16.821, "architecture_confidence": 42.036, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.38, "rotation_up": 41.73, "upward_expansion": 62.6, "deceleration": 58.94, "rotation_down": 19.15, "downward_expansion": 12.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.772933, 10.775236, 10.719514, 10.696039 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.714, "trend_reference": 10.693933, "distance_from_trend": 0.001876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.528486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.776858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021553, "excess_performance": -0.104436, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.124418, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 546849, "relative_activity": 0.879426, "balance": 0.293224, "dry_up": 1.227824, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019184, "annualized_volatility": 0.125739, "from_high_reference": -0.026354, "from_low_reference": 0.064993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.693933, "fair_value_reference": 9.528486, "structural_low": 10.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00083, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.030961, "worst_return": -0.038685, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000571, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004041, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043458, "worst_return": -0.026692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025006, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046231, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028437, "worst_return": -0.148162, "sufficient": false }, { 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"mixed", "direction": 24.554893, "energy": 33.510407, "activity_lines": [ 10.804267, 10.702945, 10.666657, 10.671277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.894, "volume": 538485, "typical_volume": 595342.6, "trend": 10.693067, "fair_value": 9.474031, "relative_strength": -6.60351, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.653393, "energy": 50.901873, "activity_lines": [ 10.858533, 10.748582, 10.690686, 10.684594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.846, "volume": 1307253, "typical_volume": 624411.9, "trend": 10.694933, "fair_value": 9.492508, "relative_strength": -6.730381, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.322603, "energy": 52.528964, "activity_lines": [ 10.8672, 10.779855, 10.71001, 10.69446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 661380, "typical_volume": 633427.65, "trend": 10.6946, "fair_value": 9.51064, "relative_strength": -7.887, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.898116, "energy": 45.968254, "activity_lines": [ 10.8196, 10.778655, 10.714524, 10.694787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.714, "volume": 546849, "typical_volume": 621824.95, "trend": 10.693933, "fair_value": 9.528486, "relative_strength": -8.776858, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.816437, "energy": 21.547505, "activity_lines": [ 10.772933, 10.775236, 10.719514, 10.696039 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }