{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49d1c06c-4d02-480b-8187-de97f60af521", "symbol": "2157", "name": "Koshidaka Holdings Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 86.345, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.451, "architecture_energy": 23.43, "architecture_maturity": 6.788, "architecture_confidence": 43.013, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.4, "rotation_up": 46.8, "upward_expansion": 39.98, "deceleration": 28.64, "rotation_down": 15.23, "downward_expansion": 43.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 1042.8, 1029.109091, 1006.952381, 1017.791593 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1055.0, "trend_reference": 1044.705876, "distance_from_trend": 0.009854, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1055.581394, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.403121, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.080386, "excess_performance": -0.24212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009854, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080364, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.234031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140323, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598597, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3210900, "relative_activity": 1.943391, "balance": 0.598597, "dry_up": 2.017277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041342, "annualized_volatility": 0.22386, "from_high_reference": -0.281164, "from_low_reference": 0.153005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1044.705876, "fair_value_reference": 1055.581394, "structural_low": 915.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090974, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.109823, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.176367, "worst_return": -0.004128, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.152474, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.198273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310741, "worst_return": 0.081129, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.240836, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.264874, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.292466, "worst_return": 0.232721, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1343, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.063262, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125498, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059112, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058442, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055602, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.105958, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029268, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1301.396606, "volume": 6329500, "typical_volume": 2801150.0, "trend": 1043.720418, "fair_value": 710.420411, "relative_strength": 14.985261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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1064.143526, "fair_value": 1058.930753, "relative_strength": -26.496587, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.068023, "energy": 22.947865, "activity_lines": [ 1017.933333, 990.945455, 995.47619, 1021.651475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1046.0, "volume": 3355100, "typical_volume": 1358510.0, "trend": 1058.659684, "fair_value": 1058.345241, "relative_strength": -25.534571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.416235, "energy": 27.80747, "activity_lines": [ 1034.8, 1003.418182, 998.604762, 1020.480925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1025.0, "volume": 4165000, "typical_volume": 1517595.0, "trend": 1051.486861, "fair_value": 1057.261491, "relative_strength": -27.302831, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.202256, "energy": 27.36612, "activity_lines": [ 1036.866667, 1010.872727, 999.871429, 1018.309333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1037.0, "volume": 2600900, "typical_volume": 1572675.0, "trend": 1048.538106, "fair_value": 1056.387991, "relative_strength": -28.750573, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.830291, "energy": 23.256491, "activity_lines": [ 1039.066667, 1019.218182, 1002.438095, 1017.374697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1055.0, "volume": 3210900, "typical_volume": 1652215.0, "trend": 1044.705876, "fair_value": 1055.581394, "relative_strength": -23.403121, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.45059, "energy": 23.429736, "activity_lines": [ 1042.8, 1029.109091, 1006.952381, 1017.791593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }