{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49d2bb7c-9bf6-42b4-998e-9b18003fcc08", "symbol": "DGICA", "name": "Donegal Group A Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.994, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.884, "architecture_energy": 58.456, "architecture_maturity": 8.541, "architecture_confidence": 71.534, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.38, "rotation_up": 64.61, "upward_expansion": 84.76, "deceleration": 49.61, "rotation_down": 13.76, "downward_expansion": 11.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.109523, 18.819783, 18.210258, 17.935072 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.24, "trend_reference": 17.785723, "distance_from_trend": 0.081767, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.582568, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234713, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.78851, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02559, "excess_performance": -0.161864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017962, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137699, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.254021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 753364, "relative_activity": 1.232816, "balance": 1.254021, "dry_up": 1.00959, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050394, "annualized_volatility": 0.226466, "from_high_reference": -0.06673, "from_low_reference": 0.198584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.785723, "fair_value_reference": 15.582568, "structural_low": 16.11, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.012942, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.054022, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.09835, "worst_return": -0.08996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030055, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.075338, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.105747, "worst_return": -0.116193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014754, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067583, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175795, "worst_return": -0.138811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 17.803365, "fair_value": 15.464463, "relative_strength": -7.970757, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.916511, "energy": 57.496902, "activity_lines": [ 18.617153, 18.193413, 17.739271, 17.664157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.578824, "volume": 429153, "typical_volume": 626680.8, "trend": 17.766142, "fair_value": 15.500095, "relative_strength": -6.081493, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.417386, "energy": 50.13587, "activity_lines": [ 18.65409, 18.32447, 17.84713, 17.714187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.74, "volume": 625684, "typical_volume": 626967.45, "trend": 17.790139, "fair_value": 15.542537, "relative_strength": -0.708754, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.005293, "energy": 64.523194, "activity_lines": [ 19.005496, 18.639399, 18.059567, 17.841533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.24, "volume": 753364, "typical_volume": 611092.0, "trend": 17.785723, "fair_value": 15.582568, "relative_strength": -7.78851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.884102, "energy": 58.455927, "activity_lines": [ 19.109523, 18.819783, 18.210258, 17.935072 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }