{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49dfc44b-e594-49dd-ae2e-06b53a2bbf81", "symbol": "AGYT", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY II Global High Yield Opportunities UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.281, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.7, "architecture_energy": 35.477, "architecture_maturity": 58.039, "architecture_confidence": 78.07, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.25, "rotation_up": 29.78, "upward_expansion": 64.32, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.98, "downward_expansion": 25.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.58968, 9.615953, 9.56429, 9.499105 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.534, "trend_reference": 9.41176, "distance_from_trend": 0.012988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.281452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02721, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.559081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030502, "excess_performance": -0.004171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012657, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008711, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036043, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030502, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75, "relative_activity": 0.306122, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 0.153061, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006272, "annualized_volatility": 0.047896, "from_high_reference": -0.017377, "from_low_reference": 0.056258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.41176, "fair_value_reference": 9.281452, "structural_low": 9.1994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003729, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-21", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.5414, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.5558, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"2026-07-31", "close": 9.5812, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 475.0, "trend": 9.386533, "fair_value": 9.270496, "relative_strength": -2.301372, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.602648, "energy": 66.551745, "activity_lines": [ 9.639373, 9.624782, 9.527322, 9.460994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.6238, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 241.25, "trend": 9.395507, "fair_value": 9.274605, "relative_strength": -4.399259, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.616812, "energy": 59.081044, "activity_lines": [ 9.631053, 9.631196, 9.544463, 9.476302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.6178, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 241.25, "trend": 9.402847, "fair_value": 9.278549, "relative_strength": -4.857457, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.031489, "energy": 53.359724, "activity_lines": [ 9.622547, 9.632371, 9.559297, 9.490643 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 9.534, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 245.0, "trend": 9.41176, "fair_value": 9.281452, "relative_strength": -4.559081, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.700331, "energy": 35.476954, "activity_lines": [ 9.58968, 9.615953, 9.56429, 9.499105 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }