{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49ed9648-2db6-4e7f-895e-7ca140534ea5", "symbol": "MDBH", "name": "MDB Capital Holdings, LLC Class A common", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.434, "architecture_energy": 37.742, "architecture_maturity": 28.723, "architecture_confidence": 93.319, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.01, "rotation_up": 20.84, "upward_expansion": 10.84, "deceleration": 37.19, "rotation_down": 51.14, "downward_expansion": 77.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.096893, 3.141462, 3.256945, 3.266815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.9201, "trend_reference": 3.277463, "distance_from_trend": -0.109037, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.354056, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.540435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.735586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090312, "excess_performance": -0.277765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109037, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03068, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.540435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123459, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.247356, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124519, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090312, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.929132, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10499, "relative_activity": 0.50321, "balance": 0.929132, "dry_up": 0.348686, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156138, "annualized_volatility": 0.606806, "from_high_reference": -0.391646, "from_low_reference": 0.191878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.277463, "fair_value_reference": 6.354056, "structural_low": 2.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.086567, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.06166, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.116667, "worst_return": -0.326306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.16273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.152552, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123824, "worst_return": -0.342157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.23865, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.412128, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059055, "worst_return": -0.418245, "sufficient": false 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{ "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.06, "volume": 9275, "typical_volume": 20894.45, "trend": 3.29746, "fair_value": 6.376949, "relative_strength": -17.903315, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.263189, "energy": 12.652534, "activity_lines": [ 3.214387, 3.18796, 3.296238, 3.29116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.9201, "volume": 10499, "typical_volume": 20864.05, "trend": 3.277463, "fair_value": 6.354056, "relative_strength": -24.735586, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.433738, "energy": 37.741989, "activity_lines": [ 3.096893, 3.141462, 3.256945, 3.266815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }