{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49f10c88-ad11-4b8d-b496-31a402774fb4", "symbol": "JRGE", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - Global Research Enhanced Index Equity Active UCITS ETF - EUR Hedged (", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.074, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.529, "architecture_energy": 66.358, "architecture_maturity": 54.814, "architecture_confidence": 69.292, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.67, "rotation_up": 57.46, "upward_expansion": 81.65, "deceleration": 66.59, "rotation_down": 25.96, "downward_expansion": 10.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.040667, 55.705818, 55.088762, 54.155172 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 57.380001, "trend_reference": 53.118666, "distance_from_trend": 0.080223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.533013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288482, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.471722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110294, "excess_performance": -0.060598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033353, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288482, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022522, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110294, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.760421, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9632, "relative_activity": 0.24252, "balance": 3.760421, "dry_up": 0.233821, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016824, "annualized_volatility": 0.120426, "from_high_reference": -0.001392, "from_low_reference": 0.217484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.118666, "fair_value_reference": 44.533013, "structural_low": 48.029999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.010675, "positive_rate": 0.741935, "directional_follow_through": 0.741935, "median_excess_return": 0.00568, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.049395, "worst_return": -0.074131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.043172, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.008884, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.117721, "worst_return": -0.047394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067431, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013437, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.16872, "worst_return": 0.010196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 55.412666, 55.301818, 54.549309, 53.703473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.330002, "volume": 12911, "typical_volume": 44842.3, "trend": 52.929333, "fair_value": 44.386795, "relative_strength": -5.263982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.134022, "energy": 52.057102, "activity_lines": [ 55.408, 55.321454, 54.734357, 53.868032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.380001, "volume": 9632, "typical_volume": 39716.3, "trend": 53.118666, "fair_value": 44.533013, "relative_strength": -4.471722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.529249, "energy": 66.357825, "activity_lines": [ 56.040667, 55.705818, 55.088762, 54.155172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }