{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49f2da51-0433-4149-b312-4eb597bb34ef", "symbol": "DNOW", "name": "Now Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.968, "architecture_energy": 84.015, "architecture_maturity": 20.512, "architecture_confidence": 73.916, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.63, "rotation_up": 79.64, "upward_expansion": 90.93, "deceleration": 44.7, "rotation_down": 11.29, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.881333, 14.224727, 13.708333, 13.43157 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.52, "trend_reference": 13.415667, "distance_from_trend": 0.231396, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.553397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218883, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.027231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.01432, "excess_performance": -0.139945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.231396, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007107, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.234572, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060272, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.241827, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01432, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.790477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16827968, "relative_activity": 1.174071, "balance": 1.790477, "dry_up": 0.86362, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062069, "annualized_volatility": 0.483143, "from_high_reference": -0.042874, "from_low_reference": 0.510745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.415667, "fair_value_reference": 13.553397, "structural_low": 10.935, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.008717, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003344, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.206486, "worst_return": -0.172849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.063091, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.039293, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.2436, "worst_return": -0.285608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.164587, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.101493, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.402162, "worst_return": -0.149688, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.103357, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049166, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055075, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.471727, "energy": 16.817118, "activity_lines": [ 13.266, 13.249818, 12.942095, 13.071247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.05, "volume": 10740664, "typical_volume": 16491643.7, "trend": 13.262, "fair_value": 13.457308, "relative_strength": -15.60156, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.147236, "energy": 10.611765, "activity_lines": [ 13.155333, 13.215455, 12.979667, 13.054882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.93, "volume": 12188600, "typical_volume": 15300111.6, "trend": 13.27, "fair_value": 13.476218, "relative_strength": -8.041231, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.549017, "energy": 14.91087, "activity_lines": [ 13.35, 13.347636, 13.101905, 13.097978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.41, "volume": 10604851, "typical_volume": 14772685.9, "trend": 13.292, "fair_value": 13.49609, "relative_strength": -3.902298, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.847546, "energy": 25.831543, "activity_lines": [ 13.711333, 13.551455, 13.259619, 13.171527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.12, "volume": 9891627, "typical_volume": 14508045.3, "trend": 13.317333, "fair_value": 13.517628, "relative_strength": -6.407687, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.54632, "energy": 45.813148, "activity_lines": [ 13.915333, 13.679455, 13.37619, 13.224946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.52, "volume": 16827968, "typical_volume": 14333001.8, "trend": 13.415667, "fair_value": 13.553397, "relative_strength": 6.027231, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.967936, "energy": 84.014989, "activity_lines": [ 14.881333, 14.224727, 13.708333, 13.43157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }