{ "ticker": { "uuid": "49f6be6a-3080-46e5-99dd-9aabb07aa290", "symbol": "300691", "name": "Union Optech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.345, "architecture_energy": 80.041, "architecture_maturity": 25.467, "architecture_confidence": 79.277, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.68, "rotation_up": 8.83, "upward_expansion": 18.87, "deceleration": 37.21, "rotation_down": 78.18, "downward_expansion": 94.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.877333, 13.755273, 14.956238, 15.539269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.54, "trend_reference": 16.280667, "distance_from_trend": -0.168339, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.744745, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.236957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.821973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211415, "excess_performance": -0.218815, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.168339, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.236957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201688, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211415, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.651513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23345737, "relative_activity": 0.866412, "balance": 1.651513, "dry_up": 1.001315, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114589, "annualized_volatility": 0.401325, "from_high_reference": -0.35677, "from_low_reference": 0.218722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.280667, "fair_value_reference": 17.744745, "structural_low": 11.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.013387, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.002372, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.172919, "worst_return": -0.287484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02135, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.000854, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.40212, "worst_return": -0.122694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.087223, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.047697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.310773, "worst_return": -0.079748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-87.801059, "energy": 82.968971, "activity_lines": [ 14.252667, 15.176182, 15.899048, 16.280925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.01, "volume": 27953178, "typical_volume": 27810832.6, "trend": 16.552333, "fair_value": 17.791317, "relative_strength": -31.501359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.749273, "energy": 88.482649, "activity_lines": [ 13.274667, 14.463455, 15.489952, 15.977161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.63, "volume": 25238975, "typical_volume": 27223304.3, "trend": 16.405, "fair_value": 17.759996, "relative_strength": -26.027915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.491665, "energy": 85.47471, "activity_lines": [ 12.82, 13.975091, 15.167857, 15.724108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.54, "volume": 23345737, "typical_volume": 26945320.1, "trend": 16.280667, "fair_value": 17.744745, "relative_strength": -23.821973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.344748, "energy": 80.040739, "activity_lines": [ 12.877333, 13.755273, 14.956238, 15.539269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }