{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a01cac6-12e7-4235-afed-4ee3816b0c2d", "symbol": "CML", "name": "CML Microsystems plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.554, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.25, "architecture_energy": 14.227, "architecture_maturity": 31.781, "architecture_confidence": 80.176, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.66, "rotation_up": 33.14, "upward_expansion": 59.51, "deceleration": 82.65, "rotation_down": 31.12, "downward_expansion": 21.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 269.46322, 267.170215, 271.617566, 263.833367 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 282.5, "trend_reference": 256.149423, "distance_from_trend": 0.102872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 312.339093, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.276859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134538, "excess_performance": 0.083303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031304, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042798, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042769, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134538, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.932671, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 136694, "relative_activity": 0.665601, "balance": 1.932671, "dry_up": 1.315256, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111564, "annualized_volatility": 0.569432, "from_high_reference": -0.256579, "from_low_reference": 0.456186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 256.149423, "fair_value_reference": 312.339093, "structural_low": 194.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02963, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.044912, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.145038, "worst_return": -0.095427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.011382, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185381, "worst_return": -0.162617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.237251, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.261952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.203572, "worst_return": -0.27093, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 259.5172, "volume": 90006, "typical_volume": 193683.85, "trend": 260.451147, "fair_value": 318.873748, "relative_strength": -10.716007, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.084472, "energy": 22.353656, "activity_lines": [ 262.71032, 277.833215, 268.419861, 261.73229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 254.6207, "volume": 237884, "typical_volume": 199048.05, "trend": 258.938503, "fair_value": 317.07997, "relative_strength": -12.978701, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.540541, "energy": 15.03138, "activity_lines": [ 258.481593, 272.236353, 268.27643, 261.356132 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 254.6207, "volume": 602421, "typical_volume": 218373.05, "trend": 257.42586, "fair_value": 315.286192, "relative_strength": -13.397487, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.669333, "energy": 16.544958, "activity_lines": [ 256.778153, 267.237296, 268.039568, 261.077564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 274.2069, "volume": 103454, "typical_volume": 215207.25, "trend": 256.56609, "fair_value": 313.778058, "relative_strength": -7.312559, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.204228, "energy": 11.400168, "activity_lines": [ 262.128733, 266.124445, 269.574626, 262.160212 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 282.5, "volume": 136694, "typical_volume": 205369.4, "trend": 256.149423, "fair_value": 312.339093, "relative_strength": -4.276859, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.250283, "energy": 14.227124, "activity_lines": [ 269.46322, 267.170215, 271.617566, 263.833367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }