{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a0558ab-e9eb-4e0f-989a-5336f7bec321", "symbol": "6650", "name": "Art Emperor Technology And Culture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.967, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.127, "architecture_energy": 11.142, "architecture_maturity": 15.897, "architecture_confidence": 58.823, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.97, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 20.51, "deceleration": 35.0, "rotation_down": 27.38, "downward_expansion": 52.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.51, 28.394157, 28.540255, 28.701984 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.4, "trend_reference": 28.985932, "distance_from_trend": -0.020214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.464772, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.317509, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06169, "excess_performance": -0.503062, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315081, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.423175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086572, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.972644, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20913, "relative_activity": 0.411015, "balance": 0.972644, "dry_up": 0.290863, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070154, "annualized_volatility": 0.443695, "from_high_reference": -0.424344, "from_low_reference": 0.13795 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.985932, "fair_value_reference": 41.464772, "structural_low": 24.957156, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017154, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.117579, "worst_return": -0.117188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.077513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.140535, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.118134, "worst_return": -0.212598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000264, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.024116, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.188333, "worst_return": -0.306818, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.093304, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035276, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042697, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117647, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 29.35, "volume": 61504, "typical_volume": 57127.7, "trend": 29.713942, "fair_value": 41.88556, "relative_strength": -41.964979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.772679, "energy": 14.203179, "activity_lines": [ 28.468081, 27.985932, 28.695698, 28.934789 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.0, "volume": 3345, "typical_volume": 55219.55, "trend": 29.451256, "fair_value": 41.774673, "relative_strength": -42.590912, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.281406, "energy": 17.998599, "activity_lines": [ 28.852884, 28.175793, 28.715424, 28.888728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.1, "volume": 34550, "typical_volume": 54168.9, "trend": 29.245461, "fair_value": 41.669742, "relative_strength": -42.346835, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.496147, "energy": 16.388355, "activity_lines": [ 28.71, 28.201359, 28.644436, 28.80155 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.5, "volume": 390, "typical_volume": 52970.85, "trend": 29.197818, "fair_value": 41.561715, "relative_strength": -41.531427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.69274, "energy": 15.033061, "activity_lines": [ 28.61, 28.30746, 28.602555, 28.753456 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.4, "volume": 20913, "typical_volume": 50881.3, "trend": 28.985932, "fair_value": 41.464772, "relative_strength": -42.317509, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.127207, "energy": 11.141795, "activity_lines": [ 28.51, 28.394157, 28.540255, 28.701984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }