{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a0a65f9-b16c-408c-a2d4-89328e0ce4b8", "symbol": "MCM", "name": "Miquel y Costas & Miquel, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 65.608, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.797, "architecture_energy": 25.442, "architecture_maturity": 17.744, "architecture_confidence": 89.31, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.33, "rotation_up": 23.31, "upward_expansion": 4.68, "deceleration": 46.53, "rotation_down": 42.63, "downward_expansion": 73.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.730597, 13.749087, 13.816038, 13.869066 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 13.933602, "distance_from_trend": -0.016765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.407926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.983228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026794, "excess_performance": -0.151224, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004836, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159832, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026794, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.061381, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15009, "relative_activity": 0.498189, "balance": 2.061381, "dry_up": 1.537528, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023495, "annualized_volatility": 0.087012, "from_high_reference": -0.053457, "from_low_reference": 0.071975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.933602, "fair_value_reference": 12.407926, "structural_low": 13.45, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.03873, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01207, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.09703, "worst_return": -0.069981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052659, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.028381, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.106381, "worst_return": -0.040195, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.087225, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.160578, "worst_return": 0.013872, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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12.294386, "relative_strength": -16.404711, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.053447, "energy": 45.142976, "activity_lines": [ 13.713069, 13.786461, 13.88362, 13.932272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.858955, "volume": 15638, "typical_volume": 31910.15, "trend": 13.992081, "fair_value": 12.317403, "relative_strength": -13.808613, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.086726, "energy": 28.794004, "activity_lines": [ 13.763263, 13.787328, 13.875843, 13.923783 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.0, "volume": 133098, "typical_volume": 35959.0, "trend": 13.986204, "fair_value": 12.341324, "relative_strength": -11.592435, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.775, "energy": 14.900745, "activity_lines": [ 13.849874, 13.816404, 13.882538, 13.924294 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8, "volume": 18291, "typical_volume": 33331.95, "trend": 13.970356, "fair_value": 12.363152, "relative_strength": -13.984378, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.602779, "energy": 17.124344, "activity_lines": [ 13.850517, 13.809116, 13.870316, 13.912281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.55, "volume": 18887, "typical_volume": 30686.15, "trend": 13.949479, "fair_value": 12.384421, "relative_strength": -15.815678, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.18129, "energy": 22.599291, "activity_lines": [ 13.768458, 13.760011, 13.834897, 13.885161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.7, "volume": 15009, "typical_volume": 30127.1, "trend": 13.933602, "fair_value": 12.407926, "relative_strength": -15.983228, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.796811, "energy": 25.442433, "activity_lines": [ 13.730597, 13.749087, 13.816038, 13.869066 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }