{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a0df11e-5af5-453f-9fed-6210f81e6202", "symbol": "003003", "name": "Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.062, "architecture_energy": 52.826, "architecture_maturity": 61.791, "architecture_confidence": 90.132, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 8.81, "deceleration": 60.38, "rotation_down": 50.97, "downward_expansion": 79.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.078667, 10.16077, 10.98066, 11.607225 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.65, "trend_reference": 12.365037, "distance_from_trend": -0.138701, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.717606, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.006308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.125752, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.223761, "excess_performance": -0.231161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.006308, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.296803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.223761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18838200, "relative_activity": 1.096022, "balance": 0.270475, "dry_up": 1.17813, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088859, "annualized_volatility": 0.393686, "from_high_reference": -0.308442, "from_low_reference": 0.176796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.365037, "fair_value_reference": 10.717606, "structural_low": 9.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.025008, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.022304, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.187271, "worst_return": -0.160825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021677, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.061077, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.395634, "worst_return": -0.070564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.081751, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.045776, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.319574, "worst_return": -0.098512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 87.663623, "activity_lines": [ 10.31804, 10.884944, 11.7883, 12.295772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.98, "volume": 20634800, "typical_volume": 18209196.4, "trend": 12.71037, "fair_value": 10.730679, "relative_strength": -22.005353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.972872, "energy": 82.363027, "activity_lines": [ 10.168447, 10.603742, 11.555152, 12.112372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.24, "volume": 23741815, "typical_volume": 17988970.95, "trend": 12.578704, "fair_value": 10.722078, "relative_strength": -27.394451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.937203, "energy": 71.775684, "activity_lines": [ 9.840667, 10.256391, 11.272623, 11.888477 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.02, "volume": 17782977, "typical_volume": 17541413.3, "trend": 12.450704, "fair_value": 10.718352, "relative_strength": -19.462591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.602771, "energy": 61.101912, "activity_lines": [ 9.859333, 10.124334, 11.086999, 11.7234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.65, "volume": 18838200, "typical_volume": 17187789.3, "trend": 12.365037, "fair_value": 10.717606, "relative_strength": -18.125752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.062357, "energy": 52.826359, "activity_lines": [ 10.078667, 10.16077, 10.98066, 11.607225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }