{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a10a4a9-0ef0-45be-9051-9c3d85d15831", "symbol": "APEI", "name": "American Public Education Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.68, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.856, "architecture_energy": 26.119, "architecture_maturity": 44.481, "architecture_confidence": 53.136, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.83, "rotation_up": 22.96, "upward_expansion": 13.4, "deceleration": 52.21, "rotation_down": 56.71, "downward_expansion": 45.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.204, 51.854, 52.858238, 52.887247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 51.24, "trend_reference": 51.495667, "distance_from_trend": -0.004965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.003878, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.970475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.254719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.141457, "excess_performance": -0.045997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004965, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120677, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.970475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581236, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012547, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.141457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065418, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1671941, "relative_activity": 1.212904, "balance": 1.065418, "dry_up": 1.277066, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104482, "annualized_volatility": 0.496153, "from_high_reference": -0.168047, "from_low_reference": 0.847119 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.495667, "fair_value_reference": 26.003878, "structural_low": 41.755, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07912, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.075465, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.32093, "worst_return": -0.038126, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164973, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.109162, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.618605, "worst_return": -0.577612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.510501, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.465387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.555349, "worst_return": -0.63806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017768, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.299291, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121792, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.421153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070461, 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2309926, "typical_volume": 1570691.1, "trend": 50.378, "fair_value": 25.158173, "relative_strength": 5.71048, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.599891, "energy": 18.784896, "activity_lines": [ 54.568667, 53.802909, 54.405429, 53.194903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.71, "volume": 1661144, "typical_volume": 1597729.75, "trend": 50.719333, "fair_value": 25.433045, "relative_strength": 0.621918, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.655615, "energy": 3.689439, "activity_lines": [ 52.276667, 52.804727, 53.746286, 53.022774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.51, "volume": 1398535, "typical_volume": 1453683.6, "trend": 51.131333, "fair_value": 25.712404, "relative_strength": 1.264165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.442336, "energy": 23.768481, "activity_lines": [ 50.585333, 52.054, 53.150476, 52.880237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.24, "volume": 1671941, "typical_volume": 1378461.5, "trend": 51.495667, "fair_value": 26.003878, "relative_strength": 1.254719, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.85566, "energy": 26.119241, "activity_lines": [ 50.204, 51.854, 52.858238, 52.887247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }