{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a1bf2a4-76ee-4024-9a8f-b1a6eaa0f46e", "symbol": "N1XP34", "name": "NXP Semiconductors N.V.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.155, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -40.016, "architecture_energy": 48.802, "architecture_maturity": 23.681, "architecture_confidence": 55.241, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.82, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 24.35, "deceleration": 70.98, "rotation_down": 68.3, "downward_expansion": 38.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.345334, 68.837137, 70.756882, 67.925507 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.790001, "trend_reference": 64.889482, "distance_from_trend": -0.063176, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.763601, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017174, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.531297, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045907, "excess_performance": 0.102955, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063176, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071762, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.065313, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097251, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045907, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.780298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3373, "relative_activity": 11.583104, "balance": 2.780298, "dry_up": 3.033997, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073278, "annualized_volatility": 0.515279, "from_high_reference": -0.26943, "from_low_reference": 0.222585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.889482, "fair_value_reference": 59.763601, "structural_low": 49.722507, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.022611, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.00976, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.264556, "worst_return": -0.090465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04562, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.076518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.497467, "worst_return": -0.140904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.098634, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.073806, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.630475, "worst_return": -0.093173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.88612, "energy": 29.585003, "activity_lines": [ 73.779044, 75.705441, 71.893496, 68.280871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.994003, "volume": 70, "typical_volume": 122.0, "trend": 65.077763, "fair_value": 59.610231, "relative_strength": 5.735511, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.526062, "energy": 33.655058, "activity_lines": [ 71.983, 74.496032, 72.223676, 68.616165 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.560001, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 124.05, "trend": 64.977439, "fair_value": 59.679768, "relative_strength": -12.970065, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -23.113852, "energy": 36.361639, "activity_lines": [ 67.157867, 71.274676, 71.40121, 68.195664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.790001, "volume": 3373, "typical_volume": 291.2, "trend": 64.889482, "fair_value": 59.763601, "relative_strength": -6.531297, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.015817, "energy": 48.802482, "activity_lines": [ 64.345334, 68.837137, 70.756882, 67.925507 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }