{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a1d4680-a110-466e-a69f-bc223a313e8d", "symbol": "PTRK", "name": "Physitrack PLC", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.426, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.929, "architecture_energy": 11.458, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 51.588, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.14, "rotation_up": 32.33, "upward_expansion": 19.68, "deceleration": 43.96, "rotation_down": 21.19, "downward_expansion": 56.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.281333, 8.109091, 8.120857, 8.402452 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.88, "trend_reference": 9.005667, "distance_from_trend": -0.013954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.182885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.647765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.177778, "excess_performance": -0.239272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326399, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083029, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.983947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 163824, "relative_activity": 1.244562, "balance": 0.983947, "dry_up": 1.02961, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07675, "annualized_volatility": 0.485598, "from_high_reference": -0.590783, "from_low_reference": 0.206522 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.005667, "fair_value_reference": 13.182885, "structural_low": 7.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.023646, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.310714, "worst_return": -0.407407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.05361, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032304, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.314554, "worst_return": -0.435652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.00885, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.066684, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.031373, "worst_return": -0.388506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049689, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130268, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.004425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.145833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.55, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.173529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.31954, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.35, "volume": 139460, "typical_volume": 140027.65, "trend": 16.943, "fair_value": 36.583684, "relative_strength": -22.276985, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.723657, 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7.889455, 8.192714, 8.71086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.7, "volume": 81365, "typical_volume": 128486.2, "trend": 9.475667, "fair_value": 13.364615, "relative_strength": -44.172651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.817919, "energy": 43.930133, "activity_lines": [ 7.806667, 7.848, 8.112952, 8.584903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.06, "volume": 199484, "typical_volume": 126226.5, "trend": 9.309333, "fair_value": 13.311795, "relative_strength": -41.736603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.614049, "energy": 36.09964, "activity_lines": [ 7.877333, 7.881455, 8.081048, 8.49357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.16, "volume": 97445, "typical_volume": 125713.5, "trend": 9.143, "fair_value": 13.246474, "relative_strength": -40.820289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.262961, "energy": 29.720459, "activity_lines": [ 7.965333, 7.931636, 8.063429, 8.419419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.88, "volume": 163824, "typical_volume": 131631.9, "trend": 9.005667, "fair_value": 13.182885, "relative_strength": -35.647765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.928541, "energy": 11.457569, "activity_lines": [ 8.281333, 8.109091, 8.120857, 8.402452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }