{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4a2a8d24-caca-47ec-b5e8-8836a55a6ea8", "symbol": "ULTA", "name": "Ulta Beauty Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.091, "architecture_energy": 16.006, "architecture_maturity": 82.98, "architecture_confidence": 51.636, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.21, "rotation_up": 39.33, "upward_expansion": 20.25, "deceleration": 44.14, "rotation_down": 14.83, "downward_expansion": 54.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 515.432667, 495.880545, 497.024, 515.396968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 565.15, "trend_reference": 551.499667, "distance_from_trend": 0.024751, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 463.580449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.219098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.860369, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.181381, "excess_performance": -0.368835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054486, "read": "Falling" 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443.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.02068, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.01191, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.204497, "worst_return": -0.085857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095794, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012127, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.329558, "worst_return": -0.151181, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.071734, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.548447, "worst_return": -0.021388, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.690973, "energy": 47.42232, "activity_lines": [ 472.778, 474.962909, 493.824333, 523.320495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 475.36, "volume": 2997111, "typical_volume": 3815084.35, "trend": 558.441, "fair_value": 462.325256, "relative_strength": -21.225988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.319791, "energy": 40.979727, "activity_lines": [ 474.252667, 473.98, 490.271762, 517.676215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 512.83, "volume": 2551970, "typical_volume": 3632459.1, "trend": 554.867333, "fair_value": 462.802885, "relative_strength": -15.158011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.908393, "energy": 26.243296, "activity_lines": [ 486.935333, 480.153818, 491.101952, 514.73357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 565.15, "volume": 2856673, "typical_volume": 3446693.6, "trend": 551.499667, "fair_value": 463.580449, "relative_strength": -10.860369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.090897, "energy": 16.006457, "activity_lines": [ 515.432667, 495.880545, 497.024, 515.396968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }